There is a smattering of data in the week ahead with Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's Retail Sales reports being the headliners. Data is merely a "potential" market mover though. Next week's Fed announcement is an "almost certain" source of volatility, for better or worse. In addition, by this time next week, markets will have a better sense of whether covid numbers actually turned a corner last week or if it was merely a byproduct of the holiday weekend. That leaves this week as a sort of prologue to next week's main events, but data and corporate bond supply could still make things interesting.
Technical patterns support the idea of bonds hunkering down ahead of a big decision. While moving averages can't do much to predict the future, yields find themselves in an uncommon pattern, trading a progressively narrower range around the 200-day moving average. Even without the moving average, such consolidation patterns always imply more decisive movement after the breakout.
On a housekeeping note, today is "roll" day for 30yr UMBS. If you're not sure what that means, check our primer on the topic (HERE...). If you're not the link-clicking type, the short story is that there's a different MBS price for each month, with markets only trading 1-2 months into the future. Prices tend to be one to three eighths lower from one month to the next. In the current case, the now-retired September coupons were .15 higher than the current October coupons. That means we can add that .15 back when calculating day-over-day change. The net effect is that 30yr UMBS are actually slightly stronger this morning even though they look like they're lower on the chart.