It actually turned out to be a rather boring day for the parts of the bond market with which we normally concern ourselves.  Treasuries and conforming MBS both held well-inside yesterday's range despite giving up some ground early.  That's quite a resilient showing considering the circumstances.

Ginnie MBS were less than resilient, however.  The culprit was the announcement of a 50bp reduction in annual MI premiums.  This goes along way toward putting FHA on more equal footing with Fannie/Freddie's recently reintroduced 97% LTV programs.  It also will simply allow existing FHA borrowers to refinance into lower monthly payments, assuming rates stay near current levels between now and the time the changes take effect.

When MBS are priced over PAR (100-00), investors are counting on the average loan in a given pool to last a certain amount of time so that the premium paid (over PAR = premium) can be recouped via interest over time.  The thinking goes: pay more than the face value in exchange for an above market return.

When/if those loans pay off, investors lose that 'above-market' income stream.  They know they won't have it forever, but they're planning on having it for a certain amount of time.  That amount of time is the key component in their estimation of the value of a certain MBS pool/coupon.  Simply put, a refinance enticement--like this drop in MI amid an already low rate environment--increases the speed with which those MBS are retired.  Investors must therefore account for the faster prepayments in their valuation models and accordingly, Ginnie MBS prices get hit as they did today.

All of the above led to a situation where rate sheets were pulled in all sorts of directions depending on which rate and program you were looking at.  At some lenders, only a narrow band of FHA rates were affected.  Additionally, some lenders improved conforming pricing while degrading govie. 

Oh, and none of the economic data made a dent, as expected.  The broader market is focused on Europe.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
102-11 : -0-09
FNMA 3.5
105-01 : -0-08
FNMA 4.0
106-32 : -0-09
2 YR
0.6130 : -0.0160
10 YR
1.9710 : +0.0330
30 YR
2.5320 : +0.0330
Pricing as of 1/7/15 5:02PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:00PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: What's up with the Reprice Dichotomy?
9:37AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Quick Heads-Up Regarding Early Potential Reprice Risk
9:06AM  :  Bond Markets Attempting to Hold Yesterday's Range; Confirming What Matters

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Shouldn't be an issue unless they do a full credit qual KC as FHA requires 210 days from note date for a streamline"
Ted Rood  :  "takes 6 months payments before you can stream an FHA."
Michael Ullmann  :  "aside from the fact that fha rates are now 3.375-3.5% while last month they were 3.5-3.75%. Factor in a 50bps savings in mip it can be huge for a borrower"
Michael Ullmann  :  "also if they allow it on refis, literally everyone that just closed an fha purchase will turn around and refi. "
Michael Ullmann  :  "its going to be a terrible convo to have with borrowers that are locked into current fha loans. Sorry but if you met me 1 month later you would save xxxx"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "They want some market share back"
Matt Hodges  :  "135 to 85 on annual"
Joseph Moran  :  "obama is doing what? reducing FHA premiums?"
Matthew Graham  :  "
MBS Live Alert Issued
What's up with the Reprice Dichotomy?"