Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:40 PM
In the past 2 decades , there have been 6 months where mortgage rates rose at least 50 basis points. February 2021 was one of them. Moreover, it was o...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:25 PM
Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It?
A fairly flat morning gave way to an afternoon rally, especia...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 12:22 PM
CoreLogic says home prices in January were 10 percent higher than a year earlier. It was the first double digit increase in the company's Home Price I...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 10:28 AM
What happens to homeowners and landlords when the federal, state, and local protections put in place during the pandemic go away? The Consumer Financi...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 10:18 AM
As a kid, magic tricks are amazing because we think there is magic. As an adult, magics tricks are amazing because we know there is no magic. Lenders ...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 9:34 AM
- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)
- 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)
...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 4:00 PM
Construction expenditures started 2021 displaying the same imbalance between the growth of residential and non-residential spending that had dominated...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 3:57 PM
Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy
- New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 10:13 AM
After Friday's impressive (and much-needed) bounce toward lower yields, the new week/month took on even greater importance than normal as a venue for ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 9:36 AM
With the jump up in mortgage rates Thursday, and the move back down Friday, a few lock desk personnel wrote to me over the weekend asking about ways o...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:49 PM
Rising rates have been on the menu for months, but the drama kicked into a higher gear this week. Maybe you heard about this? We've certainly been dis...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:47 PM
Nice Bounce! Now What?
- An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 2:42 PM
Black Knight reports a second increase in the number of loans in pandemic related forbearance plans in as many weeks. Forborne loans rose by 21,000 du...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:28 AM
Huh? Rates don’t continually go down and then stay there for an indefinite period of time? No, they don’t. There’s this opinion piece in the Wall Stre...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:15 AM
Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 16.1 percent in January compared to a 22.4 percent...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:11 AM
Deadlines for COVID-19 related relief for borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) mortgages were extended by the Federal Housing Finance Agenc...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates WISH they were still at 2.97%--the number conveyed today by Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Freddie's data is accurate when it comes to ca...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 4:58 PM
Just When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse
Staggeringly weak day for bonds.
2.0 MBS coupon is now ...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:47 AM
January marked the fifth straight month that the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has reported a decline in its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:44 AM
As hope for a recovery drawing nearer helps push rates higher, Carol K. writes, “I hate it when people ask me what I do for fun because there is no cl...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:37 AM
It got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringi...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:33 PM
As of today, you'd have to go back to June 2020 to see higher mortgage rates. This is courtesy of an ongoing move in the bond market that has longer-t...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now?
Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bo...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 12:28 PM
New home sales continued the turnaround, started in December, that ended three straight months of slowing sales. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:49 AM
Yesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:02 AM
There’s a cost to staying at home as much as we do. I went to the doctor the other day. She told me, “I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news i...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 8:43 AM
The volume of mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinancing fell for the third straight time during the week ended February 19. The Mor...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 4:37 PM
Glimmer of Hope in Bonds, But It Might Be a Trap
Bonds started the day in roughly unchanged territory and pr...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 11:25 AM
Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) report that the country ended the year with more than a 10 percent a...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:56 AM
(To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) Being home schooled was the goodest thing I ever did! Disparities in mortg...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:04 AM
In the past few weeks--and especially the past few days--we've seen a sharp spike in MBS yields relative to Treasury yields. And yes, the Treasury yi...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 6:06 PM
There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgag...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 5:00 PM
Huge Mortgage-Specific Weakness
The rate reset continues. Just when you thought 10yr yields surely couldn't...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 10:15 AM
Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market pa...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 5:54 PM
There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same ye...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 3:22 PM
Surprisingly Swift Selling in The Bond Market; What's Next?
This week has been one of the most surprising se...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 11:42 AM
Existing home sales started the 2021 with a small increase from the December sale levels, the second consecutive monthly gain. The National Associatio...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 11:38 AM
The Urban Institute (UI) says the surge in foreclosures predicted as the COVID-19 pandemic drove unemployment to the highest level since the Great Dep...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 10:13 AM
Given recent temperature trends, we're well within our right to expect actual bears to be in hibernation. How about bond market bears? They've eaten...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 9:32 AM
Ice Mortgage Technology (formerly Ellie Mae) said that closed loans continued show declining note rates in January, dropping from an average of 2.93 p...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 9:15 AM
(To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) I received many nice comments about the section in yesterday’s commentary ...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 4:43 PM
No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone's Game
Bonds were weaker earlier in the trading session but rallied back...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:46 AM
Builders appear to be prepping for a huge spring . While the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report that housin...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:36 AM
Welcome to 124-year-old Girl Scout Cookie Season ! If you’re an LO, how’d you like to deal with borrowers for 189 years, or eat the same thing day aft...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:12 AM
We talked about momentum indicators being 'oversold' yesterday--a possible prelude to a friendly bounce in bonds. If that narrative is going to play ...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:18 PM
Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point hig...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:13 PM
Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky
After a huge day of snowball selling yesterday, bonds started...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 11:40 AM
After dropping from record high levels by a total of 7 points over the last two months, the index that measures home builder confidence has stabilized...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 11:08 AM
Bonds have been hammered by selling pressure in 2021--especially in February. When it comes to many parts of the financial market, and especially bon...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 9:47 AM
Time flies. President Biden extended FHA & VA mortgage relief and the ban on home foreclosures through June . Did you know that, at 46, Leonardo DiCap...
