Wed, Oct 7 2009, 5:00 PM
When last week's NFP hit, the massive rally of the day before was confirmed. Volume was as high as it has been in a long time on both days. As you c...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 4:06 PM
In NASCAR the GREEN flag signals the start or resumption of the race. A GREEN flag tells drivers to floor it! In the bond market, GREEN on the board m...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 3:17 PM
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are reporting to be running a pilot program to help independent mortgage banks obtain warehouse type credit. The program, ...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:34 PM
OK, the auction of the 10yr re-opening was fantastic... In case you missed the results or were otherwise in need of a bit more explanation as to thei...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:17 PM
Stocks performed well in the Asian session on Wednesday, but trading in Europe was mixed and, at mid-day, it looks as though the US session will follo...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:13 PM
Prices of mortgage backed securities held to a tight range yesterday, closing the day in essentially the same place they opened. The lack of volatilit...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:01 PM
* $20 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.210 PCT, 12.77 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
* BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.01, NON-COMP BIDS $41.9 MLN
* PRIMAR...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 12:21 PM
The nitty gritty you need to take from this post:
* TSY supply/auctions, a lack of econ data, and the stock lever are influencing mortgage rate...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 10:50 AM
It was a slow day in the fixed income market's yesterday. Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged as prices of mortgage backed securities bounced around ...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 8:45 AM
Good Morning. Prices of "Rate Sheet Influential" MBS coupons are marginally lower this morning as benchmark yields rise ahead of TSY auctions. An unex...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 8:22 AM
Futures in the S&P 500 are trading 10 points higher this morning following a global rally. In Asia, the Nikkei moved up slightly after three consecuti...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 5:02 PM
3.27 and 3.30 have proven to be pivotal technical price levels in 10yr tsy yields. After rallying last week, all eyes have been on these levels to se...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 3:51 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons stuck to a tight price range today. The Federal Reserve and Asian accounts were aggressive buyers of FN 5.0s today...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:28 PM
“Keep skunks and bankers at a distance” so the old saying goes. Mortgage bankers may have to ignore that saying, however, given some National Mortgage...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:16 PM
A global advance in equities helped US stocks continue to rally on Tuesday. The last two days have seen stocks rise enough to erase losses from the pr...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:14 PM
One of our colleagues put it best a moment ago when he said: "looks like the market isn't moving much... Headed to lunch..."
Indeed after an excee...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:00 PM
Bottom Line: not exceedingly strong, but not horrible. However, initial reaction in bond markets is to the downside. MBS are off a few ticks to 101-...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:42 AM
We've been talking more and more about the "paradigm shift" occurring in the broader markets. In general, mounting evidence suggests that the equitie...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:27 AM
Trading has been volatile in the first 90 minutes on Monday but markets now appear to have found a direction. The only data release this morning was t...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:27 AM
While delinquencies are still on the rise reflecting a continued weak economy and rising unemployment, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also increasing ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 10:11 AM
ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Results-
* headline index at 50.9% versus 50.0 Consensus
* business activity index 55.1 in sept (consensus 51...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:29 AM
So Far This Am...
* Dollar Falls After G7 Meeting.
* "Strong Dollar" talk may have contributed to bond rallies last week
* MBS mostly...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:22 AM
Markets slipped 1.8% last week but overall September saw shares rise 3.6%, indicating that investors do not believe the market has overheated despite ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 5:08 PM
TOMORROW! With today's lack of data and ultimately, movement, tomorrow's impending events trump today's actual events (or lack thereof...).
Ok, I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 3:33 PM
After getting pulled into a slightly higher range on late session stock strength, tsy's decided it would be best to go ahead and hold the line at prev...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 2:10 PM
Whether it's the fact that almost any trading session would seem anticlimactic after last week's tumult or whether it's a factor of relatively low vol...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:17 PM
The other day my boss commented that, "If every employee contributed half of their life savings to our firm, we'd be on the road to profitability!" I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:15 PM
Last week was a very nice week for mortgage rates. The economic data was rather mixed, some pointing toward economic growth, while others hinting a...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:07 PM
As far as outright price levels are concerned, there is not a high degree of panic warranted by current price levels as MBS are still above 101-20 and...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 12:38 PM
This morning’s employment report was called “terrible,” “dreary,” “bleak,” and “painful,” but halfway through the session equity markets are only mode...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 12:19 PM
Mortgage rates moved a few basis points lower yesterday after the bond market experienced what AQ and MG refer to as a "forced rally". Stocks were se...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 10:28 AM
The rally one would expect to occur after weak labor market data....took place yesterday. Now the bond market is giving some of it back. After hittin...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:30 AM
SEPT NONFARM PAYROLLS -263,000 vs. CONSENSUS -180,000 vs. AUG -201,000 (PREV -216,000). WORSE THAN EXPECTED. Yesterday's bond market rally has been c...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:17 AM
Mixed data caused US equities to simply plummet yesterday, marking the third straight decline in markets. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 2.6% on the day, ...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 5:45 PM
With a nod to any Monty Python fans in the audience, I feel compelled to let you know that this weekly wrap will not be providing any sort of dairy de...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 4:17 PM
For the sake of continuity, here's an exceedingly brief update in order to fill the "MBS AFTERNOON" spot. AQ and I got caught up writing, editing, di...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:51 PM
The immediate trader reaction to weak jobs data pushed the 10yr note yield from 3.18% all the way down to 3.10%. The precipitous fall in benchmark yi...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:02 PM
My uncle used to say, "Do not corner something that you know is meaner than you." Or bigger, for that matter. Speaking of big, the numbers yesterday s...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:51 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-11 at 101-19 yielding 4.3043%. The FN 4.0 is +0-15 at 99-15 yielding 4.0586%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.1446%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:05 AM
Existing home sales could see a boost next month, according to an industry survey that looks at contracts that have been signed but not yet finalized....
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:45 AM
The 10yr TSY note yield has broken 3.27% resistance, leading "rate sheet influential" MBS prices higher.The FN 4.5 is +0-05 at 101-13 yielding 4.3275%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:24 AM
The fourth quarter begins today with a torrent of fresh data, plus speeches from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Atlanta Fed president Sandra Pianalto.
...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 4:59 PM
Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcom...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:49 PM
The Federal Reserve today reported on their weekly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the five trading days between September 24...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:36 PM
Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to ...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:20 PM
Mortgage interest rates are flirting with record low territory again according to the results of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The su...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 2:05 PM
Everyone knows the drill: small originators sell loans to mid-tier investors such as AmTrust or Franklin American, who in turn sell their loans to com...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 1:27 PM
Stocks are once again tumbling as talk of increased regulation is underway on Capital Hill. Fresh data on the nation’s manufacturing sector didn’t hel...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 1:22 PM
As the third quarter ended yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged as prices of mortgage backed securities held to the recent range. Since MBS rall...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 11:53 AM
The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift i...
