Here’s something that our Fed can’t do anything about, inflation-wise: coconut prices have doubled due to extreme weather events. (More on weather and climate below.) The Federal Reserve doesn’t control U.S. property taxes either, and they’ve jumped an average of 10.4 percent between 2021 and 2023, with wide variations across the 50 largest metro areas, from just $1,091 in Birmingham to nearly $10,000 in New York City, according to a new LendingTree analysis. Homeowners now pay a median of $2,969 annually, with the sharpest increases seen in Tampa, Indianapolis, and Dallas, while Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee saw the smallest hikes. Conference admittance prices are also on the rise. “Rob, are you hearing that non-MBA groups are giving out comp passes to their events because of the expense and lack of interest?” No comment. You’re better asking the organizations yourself. But yes, in general, many are back in the cost-cutting mode again, and the first to go are non-MBA, regional, and state events. Choose wisely! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Jeremy Potter and Paul Gigliotti from the Mortgage Innovators Conference on AI’s ultimate use-case for the industry and what it will free people up to do.)
Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers
“If your borrowers are stuck behind a home sale contingency or hitting DTI limits, Flyhomes (the leading wholesale lender specializing in Buy Before You Sell solutions) offers a faster path forward. The Flyhomes Guaranteed Backup Contract, available in all 50 states, gives borrowers a bona fide purchase agreement on their departing residence, helping them exclude that mortgage from DTI calculations and remove the home sale contingency when buying their next home, all in under 24 hours. Your borrowers are then eligible for a down payment bridge loan from Flyhomes, which seamlessly complements your purchase mortgage. For the past 10 years, Flyhomes has been a pioneer and leader in innovative financial products, helping 5,000+ buyers purchase their next home and enabling LOs to close 1.2 more loans per month on average. Now through Q2, get 25 bps off origination fees on any Flyhomes Bridge Loan! (Terms apply) Book a call to learn more, or send us a client scenario to get started today.”
Remember those choose-your-own-adventure books? Flip to page 87 if you enter the cave. Page 42 if you run. Tropos brings that same kind of personalized journey to the lending process, only smarter. As borrowers move through the portal, Tropos continuously adapts based on what it learns: about the borrower, about the property, about the lending product. The experience recalibrates with every input, ensuring relevance at every step, not just convenience. Instead of shoehorning customers into a one-size-fits-all flow, Tropos tailors the experience so it always feels like it was built just for them. Choose your path.
“Countdown to launch! The team at Rhyze has been hard at work in preparation for the release of Rhyze Residential’s first product: a true HELOC, delivered as a national delegated correspondent solution. To the IMBs that have collaborated with us during our build of a win-win-win HELOC program, the Rhyze leadership team says Thank You! All other mortgage bankers looking to enhance their delegated correspondent product set with a true HELOC that serves your piggyback and stand-alone needs, contact us via online inquiry, email us, and bookmark our new Rhyze Residential Website.”
On today’s episode of Last Word at 10AM PT, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio unpack United Wholesale Mortgage’s decision to bring servicing in-house and what it means for the industry. They also reflect on global headlines, including the election of a new pope following the Vatican’s closely watched conclave.
Disaster Updates
Imagine being fired for having the audacity to say that you want to keep your organization functioning?! The acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was fired, just a day after telling lawmakers that cutting FEMA, as President Donald Trump has proposed, is a bad move. Cameron Hamilton, who previously served as a hospital corpsman in the U.S. Navy with SEAL Team 8, has led FEMA since January.
But wait, there’s more! A database used to keep track of some of the worst natural disasters in America is on the chopping block, according to NOAA. In a posted notice, the agency’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) announced it plans to retire the database of billion-dollar disasters. The archive includes information on the impact of weather-related disasters from 1980 to 2024, including wildfires, hailstorms, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, and drought. In a statement to FOX Weather, NCEI said that a shift in government priorities has led to the decision to shutter the store of information.
But wait, there’s even more! In reaction to the news that President Trump appointed Chubb insurance CEO Evan Greenberg to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Review Council, Ethan Nuss, Senior Finance Campaigner, Rainforest Action Network, stated, “As climate disasters intensify it is critical to maintain FEMA’s life-saving disaster relief to communities experiencing crisis. It's ironic that Chubb insurance CEO Evan Greenberg is in this position given that his company is one of the world’s largest insurers of fossil fuels, a key driver of climate disasters. Mr. Greenberg could do more to address the root of the problem by phasing out Chubb’s fossil fuel underwriting instead of joining Trump’s attempts to slash disaster relief for those in need.”
And yes, disasters keep happening, impacting homeowners, servicers, and lenders. In Kentucky there was DR-4864-KY.
PHH Mortgage Announced Disaster Alert update pertaining to a new disaster declaration for Kentucky, DR-4864. Reference the announcement for all disaster declared counties, requirements, procedures, and conditions.
On 4/24/2025, with DR-4864-KY, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to 13 counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, flooding, landslides, and mudslides from 4/2/2025 and continuing. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20250407-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.
Flood risk intelligence company Fathom launched the US Flood Risk Index, a first-of-its-kind tool that provides a state-by-state view of flood exposure across the contiguous United States. The index reveals how government-issued flood maps may lead to exposure being materially underestimated, putting portfolios at risk, and “highlighting vast gaps in the provision of up-to-date local FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) map coverage. It also shows that a significant percentage of annual average losses (AAL) occur outside FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), meaning that billions of dollars’ worth of assets may be exposed to flood risk without being recognized by existing federal frameworks, raising the likelihood of under-insurance, mispriced risk and unanticipated loss.”
“The index compares publicly available government flood data to Fathom’s peer-reviewed research and flood-mapping expertise. It covers the 48 contiguous states plus the District of Columbia and includes analysis of FEMA FIRM (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) and LiDAR coverage alongside AALs both within and outside the SFHA. Present-day AAL and population exposure is compared to projections for 2050, highlighting how exposure levels may vary over time.”
MQMR answers the question, “As nationwide insurance issues continue to complicate agency-required hazard and flood insurance coverage, are there any resources available to lenders to assist with training staff?”
“Yes. Fannie Mae’s Learning Center provides Insurance Training to lenders and servicers that is specifically designed to provide an understanding of the key property and flood insurance requirements for one-to-four units, PUDs, condos and co-ops. Specifically, Fannie Mae’s Learning Center offers training modules on property insurance, and flood insurance… Please also visit our prior related FAQs: Natural Disasters and Mortgage Lenders and Property Insurer Credit Rating… MQMRs Newsroom has, The Home Insurance Crisis; How Mortgage Leaders Can Navigate the Volatile Market.”
Observations from the Innovation Conference
Day Two of the California MBA’s Mortgage Innovation Conference in Huntington Beach showcased a dynamic series of panels and presentations focused on improving efficiency, affordability, and customer experience across the mortgage industry.
Thursday kicked off with a session on reducing origination costs, industry leaders shared insights into leveraging technology and streamlining processes to make home loans more accessible. Later, a critical conversation highlighted the rising cost of insurance due to wildfires and climate risks, emphasizing the impact on homeownership and loan viability. Attendees also explored how AI is reshaping the borrower journey through personalized, white-glove experiences, and how innovative marketing tools are enabling mortgage professionals to drive engagement directly from their CRMs.
The afternoon included a discussion on the evolution of digital mortgages, a tech demo featuring emerging platforms, and a final panel on using data and AI to build long-term customer loyalty. The day concluded with a concise talk on smart, design-driven mortgage marketing strategies.
Guild: Earnings Show a Mixed Bag
Guild Holdings Company sent out its first-quarter 2025 earnings report: net revenue of $198.5 million, net loss of $23.9 million, and adjusted net income of $21.6 million. The company had a 35 percent year-over-year increase in originations, totaling $5.2 billion, “with a strong emphasis on purchase originations.” But the total originations of $5.2 billion was down from $6.7 billion in the fourth quarter 2024 (but up from $3.9 billion in first quarter 2024). Guild originated 88% of closed loan origination volume from purchase business, compared to the Mortgage Bankers Association industry estimate of 71% for the same period.
Guild’s net revenue fell: $198.5 million compared to $373.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $231.8 million in the first quarter 2024. “Net loss attributable to Guild of $23.9 million compared to net income of $97.9 million in fourth quarter 2024 and net income of $28.5 million in first quarter 2024… Servicing portfolio unpaid principal balance of $94.0 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to $93.0 billion as of December 31, 2024 and $86.3 billion as of March 31, 2024.
Capital Markets
In response to recent economic developments and comments from Fed Chair Powell after the FOMC meeting earlier this week, expectations for a near-term rate cut have dropped sharply. The probability of a June cut is now less than one-in-five, down from over 50 percent a few weeks ago. Additionally, the futures market only anticipates three cuts by year’s end. Powell also raised concerns about the potential impact of new tariffs, warning that they could delay progress on inflation and employment goals for up to a year. Still, markets seem confident that economic data will eventually push the Fed toward easing, even though Powell emphasized the uncertainty around how tariffs will play out in terms of timing, magnitude, and overall effect on the economy.
The Federal Reserve closely monitors inflation expectations because they influence how consumers and workers behave. When people expect prices to rise, they may rush to buy goods, potentially creating shortages and pushing prices up further. Similarly, if workers anticipate inflation, they may demand higher wages, leading to wage inflation. However, if inflation expectations remain contained and don’t drive these behaviors, the broader economic impact is less severe. In the inflation surge of 2021 and 2022, shelter costs (soaring home prices in particular) played a major role, but a repeat of that is unlikely given today’s affordability challenges and the Fed’s reduced role in mortgage-backed securities purchases.
President Trump announced yesterday that a trade agreement had been reached with the United Kingdom, although few specifics were provided. According to Trump, the deal includes provisions for the UK to expedite U.S. goods through customs and lower trade barriers on a wide range of American exports, such as agricultural products, chemicals, energy, and industrial goods like beef and ethanol. The UK government confirmed that the agreement includes cutting U.S. car tariffs to 10 percent and eliminating duties on metals. This marks Trump’s first trade agreement with a nation that opted for cooperation over retaliation in response to his tariff policies.
Yesterday’s 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction didn’t go particularly well, a sign of weaker demand. The government had to offer a slightly higher interest rate (4.82 percent) than usual to attract buyers, compared to the average of 4.57 percent over the past six similar auctions. Investors outside of Wall Street banks (non-dealers) bought a larger share than usual (86 percent), which often happens when banks are less eager to participate. However, overall interest in the auction was lower than normal, with fewer bids coming in per bond offered (a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.31 versus a 2.39 average). Right after the auction, bond prices fell and yields rose further, suggesting investors weren’t impressed and demand remains soft. In simple terms, the government had to offer more attractive terms to sell long-term debt, and the bond market reacted negatively.
While there are no major economic data releases scheduled for Friday, the day will be filled with remarks from several Federal Reserve officials at various conferences. Governors Barr, Kugler, Waller, and Cook, New York Fed President Williams, Richmond Fed President Barkin, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will all appear at separate events. We begin Friday with Agency MBS prices little changed from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.85, and the 10-year yielding 4.38 after closing yesterday at 4.37 percent.
Get Rob Chrisman Daily by Email
