Fri, Aug 7 2009, 3:49 PM
Treasuries and Stocks appear to have shown their hand for the day as the close of the stock market approaches. After 3 earnest attempts, the 10yr has...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 1:33 PM
Activity remains quiet early in the afternoon hours on this summer Friday. The FN 4.5 has moved 11 ticks (11/32) off the lows of the day. Some lenders...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 12:28 PM
Weaker than expected economic data on the services sector of our economy lead to a brief rally in mortgage backed securities yesterday. However, as t...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 10:28 AM
Although this morning stocks moved lower as profit takers set out to time a top before tomorrow's NFP print, fixed income market participants have bee...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 8:21 AM
The AM So Far...
* 4 ticks up on 4.5's. Currently at 99-14
* BOE announces surprise increase in QE, pound slides
* IF the dollar ben...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 5:09 PM
Although the give and take wasn't quite as drastic as yesterday's, once again we saw prices travel in a confined range with an almost symmetrical patt...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 3:46 PM
The Federal Reserve took a break from buying today. Servicers and Originators sold over $4bn "rate sheet influential" MBS today, $2bn of which was ...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 1:38 PM
The White House today responded to recent questions raised, among other places, by an article in today's Washington Post, about the potential phasing...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 12:04 PM
In mortgage world, the "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 has recovered early morning losses and rallied back up to yesterdays range. Although prices hav...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 10:15 AM
Profit takers are out in stock markets this morning, leading TSYs rate sheet influential MBS prices higher. The Federal Reserve will be conducted coup...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 8:33 AM
The AM So Far...
* 4.5's down 10 ticks so far this AM...
* Insult to injury for TBW devotees...
* ADP employment "less bad"... Down...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 5:21 PM
Overnight market movements saw MBS and Tsy's move to their worse levels since mid July. Shortly thereafter weaker than expected ISM data gave equitie...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 4:06 PM
Early in the session stocks showed signs of weakness, allowing TSY and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons an opportunity to rally to the highs of th...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 3:03 PM
The S&P has broken the 1,000 price mark, unfortunately since the yield curve and MBS are taking directional guidance from the stock lever....the 10 y...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 2:10 PM
This far into 2009 we've become almost spoiled by a pleasant lack bank failures among the most common names to the mortgage crowd. Chases TPO drama w...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 1:36 PM
This morning, mortgage backed securities began to continue their recent trend of moving lower in price which tends to increase mortgage rates, however...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 12:33 PM
Following better than expected manufacturing data, domestically and abroad, Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities sold off yesterday, returning al...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:05 AM
Further selling has been observed in the long end of the yield curve....pushing the 10 yr TSY note to an intraday high of 3.70%. Two attempts to recov...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 10:02 AM
Following a better than expected Pending Homes Sales print (+3.6% vs. expected +0.6%), the 10yr TSY note yield rose 7bps from 3.58 to 3.65. Consequen...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 8:13 AM
Recap of Previous Session
* Big 'Ol Sell-Off yesterday following hit after hit from the "recovery monster."
* ISM and Construction Spendin...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 5:02 PM
In case you missed the most recent commentary, start with that as there is no fundamental change to the price action between then and now. Additional...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 3:57 PM
If you were here yesterday, then consider yourself excused from today... Although it would have been nice to know this before you came in I suppose.....
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 1:06 PM
At our lowest point so far this AM, the 4.5 touched levels around 99-20 when one includes the more outlying type trades that we tend to see courtesy o...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:08 PM
Beyond stop out selling...activity in the 10 yr TSY note has been somewhat subdued today. Here is a chart of the 10 yr TSY Sept. Futures contract. Not...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 11:58 AM
Last week mortgage rates were up, then they were down, then they were up, then on Friday they finally moved under 5% again. Following a successful auc...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:09 AM
After the ISM manufacturing PMI number came in higher than expected (48.9 vs. 46.2)...the 10 yr TSY yield rose from 3.56 to 3.62 and the "rate sheet ...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 8:28 AM
Recap Of Previous Session
* Very Stable, Very Nice Friday Rally took us nearly as high as we've been since Black Wednesday
* Stocks gained...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 6:04 PM
Strong Chinese manufacturing data followed by a better than expected Eurozone PMI print coupled with "recession may be over" comments from Alan Greens...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 2:45 PM
You would expect all hell to be breaking loose in TSYs given the dollar weakness and optimism in equities, however we are just kinda hanging out at th...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 12:56 PM
Happy Friday...
This is simply a chart illustrating the continued rally in MBS and Treasuries. This puts us on the high side of this week's trend ch...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 12:24 PM
The roller coaster theme continued yesterday but in reverse from the prior two days. If you recall, on both Tuesday and Wednesday mortgage backed se...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 11:08 AM
As originators scramble with last minute closings (not so much with new TIL) there has been an end of month hustle and bustle about the MBS market thi...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 8:30 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* 7yr Auction much better than previous auctions this week.
* Good midday support from internal trendlines
* MBS fo...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 6:16 PM
Not too often do we see a MBS rally on Friday, but it is happening today. Currently MBS are up .75 basis points which has resulted in most lenders r...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 5:02 PM
Have you noticed a lack of MBS specific analysis lately?
We havent been discussing MBS duration or educating on embedded options. We've left out sp...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 3:03 PM
Answer: When prices are better by half a point on the day with absolutely no volatility...
The half point improvement portion of the above answer i...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:46 AM
One has to assume that, based on the results of the previous three auctions (good demand for 20 YR TIPS, crappy demand for saturated 2s market, crapp...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:38 AM
The theme of the week continues. Mortgage backed securities were again unable to hold onto early morning gains following a less than expected Durable...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 10:21 AM
Although many might expect the stock rally to cause chaos in the TSY market as portfolio allocations favor riskier stocks....the 10 yr is holding stea...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 8:27 AM
Recap Of Last Session
* Durable goods weaker than expected, lends to early fixed income strength
* Once again, bonds rallied into a tsy au...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 5:17 PM
If no one else, you can always count on us to point out when we were right.
At 2:15 PM we gave you the following chart before any bounce had occurr...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 3:16 PM
Although only status quo has bee kept...STATUS QUO HAS BEEN KEPT....all while stocks made new 2009 highs. Benchmark big brother TSYs and "rate sheet i...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 1:48 PM
Some traditional post auction volatility has entered the scene. As stocks have continued to move higher and profits have been taken, we've seen a ret...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 1:02 PM
Mixed signals from the 7yr Auction results as the high yield was 6bps over current trading with 91% coming in at high. At face value, not so good, bu...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 11:59 AM
The roller coaster theme of recent weeks continues. Yesterday mortgage backed securities were unable to hold onto impressive early morning gains follo...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:52 AM
Volatility is an angry animal...especially when the market is poking and prodding at a wide range of resistance and support levels. Dont get caught up...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 8:44 AM
* MBS gained moderately yesterday despite drama
* Stocks were actually down. Wait... What?
* 2 yr auction not well received by bond market...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 5:08 PM
Pete Townshend certainly seemed like he was confident about something in one his more popular songs... Perhaps when we ask ourselves "Who" knows what...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 2:37 PM
Following the crappy 5 yr note auction....the long end of the yield curve sold off and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices ticked considerably lower. ...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 1:14 PM
Putting another 10 minutes between us and the auction has allowed more of the characteristic volatility to play out. See below that the 10 yr immedia...
