Thu, Oct 8 2009, 11:18 AM
Despite better than expected jobless claims data, proof that business inventories are still contracting, improving retail sales, a weaker dollar, anot...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 11:06 AM
A steady rally in benchmark Treasury yields yesterday helped prices of mortgage backed securities move to five month highs which allowed lenders to ke...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 8:33 AM
The 10yr TSY yield initially spiked higher after jobless claims data...however selling slowed as yields bounced at 3.21%.Rate sheet influential MBS co...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 6:54 PM
After the dust settled today, the 30yr bond was down over a point today whereas 4.5 MBS had only lost 3 ticks... There was plenty of sturm and drang ...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 4:11 PM
The FN 4.0 is currently -0-05 at 99-18 yielding 4.050%. The FN 4.5 is currently -0-02 at 101-27 yielding 4.275%. The secondary market current coupon i...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 1:23 PM
As markets are given some more time to digest and show their hand, the bond bears are doing battle with trade flow considerations we discussed in MBS ...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 1:01 PM
30 year bond auction results...
* $12 BLN 29-YEAR 10-MONTH BONDS AT HIGH YIELD 4.009 PCT, AWARDS 27.53 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
* BID-TO-COVER ...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 12:12 PM
Prepayment speeds determine, to a great extent, the timing of principle cash flows back to the MBS investor. If forecasts of prepayment speeds are mi...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 9:01 AM
The US dollar is recovering after taking a beating in currency markets yesterday. As the dollar gains against other currencies, oil and gold prices ar...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 5:00 PM
When last week's NFP hit, the massive rally of the day before was confirmed. Volume was as high as it has been in a long time on both days. As you c...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 4:06 PM
In NASCAR the GREEN flag signals the start or resumption of the race. A GREEN flag tells drivers to floor it! In the bond market, GREEN on the board m...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:34 PM
OK, the auction of the 10yr re-opening was fantastic... In case you missed the results or were otherwise in need of a bit more explanation as to thei...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:13 PM
Prices of mortgage backed securities held to a tight range yesterday, closing the day in essentially the same place they opened. The lack of volatilit...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:01 PM
* $20 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.210 PCT, 12.77 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
* BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.01, NON-COMP BIDS $41.9 MLN
* PRIMAR...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 12:21 PM
The nitty gritty you need to take from this post:
* TSY supply/auctions, a lack of econ data, and the stock lever are influencing mortgage rate...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 10:50 AM
It was a slow day in the fixed income market's yesterday. Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged as prices of mortgage backed securities bounced around ...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 8:45 AM
Good Morning. Prices of "Rate Sheet Influential" MBS coupons are marginally lower this morning as benchmark yields rise ahead of TSY auctions. An unex...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 5:02 PM
3.27 and 3.30 have proven to be pivotal technical price levels in 10yr tsy yields. After rallying last week, all eyes have been on these levels to se...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 3:51 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons stuck to a tight price range today. The Federal Reserve and Asian accounts were aggressive buyers of FN 5.0s today...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:14 PM
One of our colleagues put it best a moment ago when he said: "looks like the market isn't moving much... Headed to lunch..."
Indeed after an excee...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:00 PM
Bottom Line: not exceedingly strong, but not horrible. However, initial reaction in bond markets is to the downside. MBS are off a few ticks to 101-...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:42 AM
We've been talking more and more about the "paradigm shift" occurring in the broader markets. In general, mounting evidence suggests that the equitie...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 10:11 AM
ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Results-
* headline index at 50.9% versus 50.0 Consensus
* business activity index 55.1 in sept (consensus 51...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:29 AM
So Far This Am...
* Dollar Falls After G7 Meeting.
* "Strong Dollar" talk may have contributed to bond rallies last week
* MBS mostly...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 5:08 PM
TOMORROW! With today's lack of data and ultimately, movement, tomorrow's impending events trump today's actual events (or lack thereof...).
Ok, I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 3:33 PM
After getting pulled into a slightly higher range on late session stock strength, tsy's decided it would be best to go ahead and hold the line at prev...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 2:10 PM
Whether it's the fact that almost any trading session would seem anticlimactic after last week's tumult or whether it's a factor of relatively low vol...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:15 PM
Last week was a very nice week for mortgage rates. The economic data was rather mixed, some pointing toward economic growth, while others hinting a...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:07 PM
As far as outright price levels are concerned, there is not a high degree of panic warranted by current price levels as MBS are still above 101-20 and...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 12:19 PM
Mortgage rates moved a few basis points lower yesterday after the bond market experienced what AQ and MG refer to as a "forced rally". Stocks were se...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 10:28 AM
The rally one would expect to occur after weak labor market data....took place yesterday. Now the bond market is giving some of it back. After hittin...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:30 AM
SEPT NONFARM PAYROLLS -263,000 vs. CONSENSUS -180,000 vs. AUG -201,000 (PREV -216,000). WORSE THAN EXPECTED. Yesterday's bond market rally has been c...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 5:45 PM
With a nod to any Monty Python fans in the audience, I feel compelled to let you know that this weekly wrap will not be providing any sort of dairy de...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 4:17 PM
For the sake of continuity, here's an exceedingly brief update in order to fill the "MBS AFTERNOON" spot. AQ and I got caught up writing, editing, di...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:51 PM
The immediate trader reaction to weak jobs data pushed the 10yr note yield from 3.18% all the way down to 3.10%. The precipitous fall in benchmark yi...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:51 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-11 at 101-19 yielding 4.3043%. The FN 4.0 is +0-15 at 99-15 yielding 4.0586%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.1446%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:45 AM
The 10yr TSY note yield has broken 3.27% resistance, leading "rate sheet influential" MBS prices higher.The FN 4.5 is +0-05 at 101-13 yielding 4.3275%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 4:59 PM
Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcom...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:36 PM
Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to ...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 1:22 PM
As the third quarter ended yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged as prices of mortgage backed securities held to the recent range. Since MBS rall...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 11:53 AM
The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift i...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:50 AM
The AM So Far...
* ADP worse than expected at -254k
* GDP Better than expected at -.7 vs. consensus of -1.2
# Bonds Initial reaction DOW...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 5:04 PM
Maybe the markets will find some sort of impetus to get directional tomorrow, but so far this week, Monday's extension of Friday's rally merely set us...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 3:32 PM
After hitting an intraday high of 101-16 this morning, an unfriendly trend channel developed and the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low print of 101-04. ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:43 PM
Mortgage rates were were unchanged for the most part yesterday as prices of mortgage-backed securities held to their recent range. Following Monday’s...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:03 PM
Plainly and simply, prices are at their lowest point of the day. And though this STILL leaves MBS over 101-00 on the 4.5 and the 10yr is still under ...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 12:31 PM
Despite a rally in equity markets, prices of mortgage-backed securities moved higher yesterday. No economic data was released, trading volume was ver...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 11:36 AM
September Consumer Confidence Survey data registered a 53.1 read vs. the consensus estimate of 57.0 and the previous 54.5 (revised from 54.1). Followi...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 8:57 AM
Good Morning. The rates market is giving back a portion of yesterday's gains. Stock futures are higher. The 10yr TSY note yield is trading near 3.33%....
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 5:06 PM
Tuesday 9/29 at a Glance
* MBS down 1 tick on the day to 101-11, continuing to close at multi-month highs
* Real Money (insurance funds, e...
