The rescheduled release of the September jobs report played out exactly as we expected in terms of bond market impact. Volumes surged to the highest levels since the late October Fed announcement and bonds managed a clear response in spite of arguably mixed results. That said, the response was still logical given the Fed's stated preference for the unemployment rate over the payroll count. One could imagine an even more decisive rally if NFP was low or negative (or if the unemployment rate was another 0.1% higher). The AM rally may have fizzled out by 10:30am if not for another sizeable sell-off in stocks. This is a bit of a wild card going forward (i.e. we have to worry that a big correction in stocks could push yields higher).
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- Non Farm Payrolls (Sep)
- 119K vs 50K f'cast, 22K prev
- Participation Rate (Sep)
- 62.4% vs -- f'cast, 62.3% prev
- Philly Fed Business Index (Nov)
- -1.7 vs -3.1 f'cast, -12.8 prev
- Philly Fed Prices Paid (Nov)
- 56.10 vs -- f'cast, 49.20 prev
- Unemployment rate mm (Sep)
- 4.4% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev
- Non Farm Payrolls (Sep)
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.121
Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.103
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.105
MBS Market Alerts
