The actual geometric shape that would be required to account for all the different considerations affecting bond markets would be one of those long dodecahedron-type words.  Attempting to label each of those sides as they move and change sounds really tedious to think about and write.  I'm sure it sounds tedious to read as well, so let's stick to triangles today.

Fortunately, there's a pretty established example in the relationship between stocks, bonds, and European 'concerns.'  That last part is purposefully vague because it deals with the broad concept of Europe's as yet undetermined plight.  Can they pull up from their crash course?  Will central bank efforts take hold in terms of inflation?  If disaster is averted again this time, is it only a matter of time before the whole Euro experiment comes crashing down?  With all those things in mind, the yield on 10yr German Bunds is a great barometer for how screwed Europe reserves the right to be.

In other words, they're not necessarily screwed, but there's a good enough chance of it that the region's largest economy and stablest banking system has logically become the safest haven for investors.  In addition to the safe haven angle, some investors are also simply buying core European bonds as an investment that has the potential to appreciate in price.  Basically, they see yields dropping, and the chance to make a buck between here and there.

Whatever the case, this falling European barometer has been a boon to US rates this year.  Incidentally, it was a major boon in 2011 and 2012 as well, but it sticks out more now as it stands in starker contrast to our current average piece of economic data, not to mention the expected direction of rates in 2014.  Long story short, European 'concerns' drag down rates in the US.

On the other side of the triangle, there's the cliche correlation between stocks and bonds.  This one doesn't require much explanation.  Quite simply, it's never something that will pan out over the long term, but goes through solid stints of short-term correlation.  The time from mid-September through present has been one of those "more correlated than not" moments.  But we've recently seen bond markets level off and resist a bigger move higher, despite that suggestion being made by stocks. 

2014-11-5 combo

Could it be that European concerns are preventing US bond markets from getting carried away by stocks?  Yes, it could.  The better question is "will it continue?"  While the longer term answer is a resounding "probably!" the shorter term answer stands a chance to get a big dose of information with today's reaction to Mario Draghi's press conference at 8:30am.  The ECB isn't expected to drop any bombs in their 7:45am announcement, but the press conference is always a wild card.

If, by chance, we don't see much of a response in markets, then the next logical move would be to sit on the edge of our seats for tomorrow's NFP to break the recent bond market monotony.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
99-27 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
103-08 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
106-04 : +0-00
2 YR
0.5260 : +0.0000
10 YR
2.3350 : -0.0110
30 YR
3.0550 : -0.0070
Pricing as of 11/6/14 7:21AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 06
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 285 287
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml)* w/e 2.360 2.384