I hope you like broken records!  Because in that department we can deliver!  It's not a delivery we're happy about but think the repetition will at least serve to add EMPHASIS to the point we hope to have made over the past 20 days or so....


The above "getting out" certainly refers to anyone floating on a late December/early January timeline.

Only a month ago, best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rates were holding between 4.25% and 4.75%. Heck 4.75% was available on Monday morning!  But in the past 24 hours, that all changed. The best execution 30yr fixed rate blew through 4.875 and now sits firmly at 5.00%!

Yes we feel this is overdone and rates will probably decline in the future, but it will probably play out in a "fits and starts" manner. This means, if rates do rally, that consumers will face a series of tough decisions at each step lower. Take the improvements and move on or wait it out for lower rates? From that point of view....What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates recovery?

  1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not recover as much as you want/need. 
  2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not recover as fast as you want/need.
  3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready for MORE VOLATILITY in the bond market. 

The bad news is that expected volatility has only been compounded by the "TIME OF YEAR" factor AQ discussed on Monday. Remember this...

I say "this time of year" because it is year-end on Wall Street and investors are generally distracted by holiday events and administrative tasks aimed at cleaning up balance sheets for annual reporting. The resulting effect is less participation in the bond market and increased volatility. If you've been reading the blog lately,  that volatility has been obvious.

Seriously... rates can continue making big moves in either direction FASTER THAN YOU CAN CALL/EMAIL/YELL at your lender to get that rate locked! It happened today!! The new best execution par 30 year fixed mortgage rate has moved up to 5.00%.  We hope it doesn't stay that way too long, but it looks unlikely we'll see anything better than 4.75% before the New Year.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on agency conforming loan amounts to very well qualified borrowers who have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the "perfect borrower" category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive. "No point" loan doesn't mean "no cost" loan. The best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recordation + escrows (things like upfront MIP (if required), property taxes, homeowners insurance, accrued interest)".