Recently I paid over $10 for a simple Oscar Mayer 12-ounce package of bacon. Jerome Powell, help me! Well, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set bacon prices, or things that come from China like rare earth metals, most of which I’ve never heard of but are apparently in my phone and car’s dashboard. Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in China sending the prices of crucial metal components in electronics way up. The price of dysprosium is up to $910 per kilogram, triple the pre-export restrictions price. The price of terbium hit $3,700 per kilogram, quadruple the previous rate. The benchmark price for gallium has reached $1,325 per kilogram, which is 2.3 times the price at the beginning of the year and the highest price on record. China produces 99 percent of the world’s gallium. Our Federal Reserve can only do so much when it comes to combatting inflation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Two Dots, whose conversational screening agent replaces manual underwriting with a streamlined, end-to-end process that reduces risk and fraud while securing safer borrowers, increasing profitable loan volume, and lowering underwriting overhead. Today’s has an interview with Creative Title’s Caleb Christopher on how lenders can adopt advanced AI and creative financing models while maintaining transparency, security, and consumer protection, and examining how private-capital “non-bank bank” structures, tightening credit, and the needs of underserved borrowers will shape the balance between innovation, risk, and trust.)

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software

Heading into 2026, the team at Eris Innovations, creators of CME Group’s Eris SOFR Swap futures, report a growing appetite among mortgage lenders to evolve their approach to capital markets. Rather than settling for best efforts execution of Non-QM, DSCR and ARM production, lenders can hedge interest rate risk and adopt more lucrative bid-tape mandatory execution, where they shop loans for bulk or single loan commitments. With more buyers entering the market for these loans, the elevated demand can lead to increased pay-ups. Hedging interest rate risk with a product like Eris SOFR Swap futures is the key to unlock improved execution levels. As non-agency lenders and MSR portfolio hedgers increasingly turn to SOFR-based hedges (instead of US Treasuries or TBA Mortgage-Backed Securities), risk and analytics vendors are building the SOFR curve analytics to serve this community. To learn more, listen to Robbie Chrisman’s recent podcast interview with Geoff Sharp (jump to 3m30s) ahead of the recent MBA Annual, or contact John Douglas.

Lots of great discussion lately about MISMO and its importance to our industry. How is your LOS built? ​The new MortgageFlex Cloud LOS, LoanQuest, uses MISMO enumerations at its core, ensuring industry-standard compliance and alignment with fee logic.​ This provides reduced operational risk by embedding MISMO standards, eliminating complex data mapping, and improving interoperability. This also dramatically enhances our integration with third-party document providers, as we have a dual approach to compliance: both in the system and with the document providers. If a loan is out of compliance on either side, incorrect documents are prevented from returning to the LOS. MISMO-driven design allows quick adaptation to guideline changes and seamless integration with investors and GSEs.​ Enhanced Data Consistency​ with a normalized SQL database provides consistent data across processes, improves accuracy, reduces compliance issues, and reduces investor stipulations, buybacks, and state and federal audit issues. Contact John McCrea for more information.

On today’s Last Word at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, and Christy Soukhamneut break down the MISMO and CSBS Tech Sprint and what lenders should be doing now to prepare for next year. The panel also covers rising credit report costs, rate movements, PCE data, and the industry’s adjustment to a new Federal Reserve Chair.

“The Hidden Cost of 'We'll Look into AI Next Quarter.’ Every quarter you wait, competitors capture your leads. While you're researching AI options, they're already engaging 10x more customers with Prajna's proven agents. Here's what ‘waiting for the right time’ really costs: lost leads who couldn't reach you fast enough, talented employees burning out on repetitive tasks, and customers choosing lenders who respond instantly. Small and mid-sized institutions think they need perfect conditions to start with AI. They don't. Prajna’s battle-tested agents deploy in weeks, integrate with existing systems, and deliver ROI from day one. No committees, no massive budgets, no starting from scratch. Pick an urgent problem: bulk refinancing customers, past prospect leads, overwhelming inbound call volume, or repetitive customer questions/data lookup. Deploy. Measure. Expand. The perfect time was yesterday. The second-best time is now. Stop losing to faster competitors. Visit here or contact us here.

MortgageHalo delivers a leading automated CRM platform built for the realities of busy loan officers and the institutions that support them. The system automates multi-channel, personalized marketing campaigns, triggers timely lead alerts, and sends branded, compliant communications that help loan officers focus on what they do best while strengthening client relationships, improving retention, and supporting a healthier future pipeline. Lenders across the country rely on MortgageHalo’s SaaS technology, expert-built CRM platform with automated campaigns, and live support to create a seamless experience for their teams. They report higher client retention, increased repeat and referral business, and stronger adoption compared to traditional CRMs that require more manual effort, place a heavier burden on loan officers, or introduce unnecessary operational complexity. To learn more or request information, please contact Kirk King.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Broker and Correspondent Loan Products

“Become certified in EEP! Join Arrive Home’s EEP Certification Masterclass and unlock new revenue streams with the Earned Equity Program, designed for borrowers who may not fit the conventional credit profile, including those with a strong rental payment history, self-employed individuals, or those with non-traditional incomes. With EEP, you can assist 25–50 percent of your FHA fall-out borrowers, and the training is quick and easy to master on Arrive Home’s new Learning Management System. We’ll take you step-by-step through everything you need to know about EEP, making it simple to earn your certification and confidently support more borrowers with this innovative program. Join our webinar with Arrive Home’s Shawn King on Dec. 9, 2025, at 11am MST to get your EEP Certification. Register here.”

“Have clients with an older fixed-rate HELOC? Let’s pay it off with a low variable rate HELOC from Better’s Wholesale 2nds Program, powered by Tinman AI. Better Wholesale is open to brokers and lenders of all sizes: work with us and get lender-direct pricing! What else can we offer? If you like an easy experience – we have an approval process that takes as little as 3-minutes. If your clients are price sensitive – we have low rates with no lender origination fees. If you’d like to make higher comp than most programs, earn up to 3 percent in BPC. And unlike some platforms, the speed is backed up by a real underwriting process. What else? Up to 90 percent CLTV, 75 percent minimum draw, and up to a 10-year IO period on HELOC. Price HELOC and CES at the same time. Visit Better Wholesale or contact Patrick Kandianis directly. Thank you!”

Conventional Conforming Shifts Continue

Last week the FHFA, via Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, rolled out the 2026 loan limits for fitting into the conventional conforming box. “Following suit…”

Newrez LLC informed its approved Correspondent Clients about FHFA’s announcement on 2026 conforming and high-cost loan limits. (By the way, Newrez offers a comprehensive training curriculum on Newrez products and processes to keep your staff informed of the latest developments in products, technology solutions, compliance issues, and process improvements. Each of these programs is offered by its training and development staff on a monthly basis and is updated regularly to reflect recent changes in the industry. Visit the Newrez training site.)

FHFA has announced that, in most of the U.S., the 2026 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties is increasing to $832,750, and the loan limit ceiling to $1,249,125. For implementation information, see AmeriHome Mortgage 20251105-CL Product Announcement.

AmeriHome Mortgage 20251106-CL General Announcement summarizes previously published changes made during November, additional changes made with the announcement, and recent Agency and regulatory news.

Effective November 26, 2025, Pennymac is aligning with the conforming loan limit increase values for standard and high-cost loans, as announced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

View Pennymac Announcement 25-122 for information.

Information regarding updates to Conventional & Jumbo LLPAs was posted in Pennymac Announcement 25-118.

FHA published updates to its Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1 (Handbook 4000.1). This update includes the incorporation of previously published Mortgagee Letters (MLs) and various technical edits, including hyperlink updates. See the Handbook 4000.1 Transmittal for a summary of revisions, changes, effective dates, and other pertinent information. For comparison purposes, a separate redlined version has also been posted on the Handbook 4000.1 Information webpage.

AmeriHome Mortgage Product Announcement 20251102-CL provides information regarding USDA’s recent publication of PN 649 providing notice of handbook updates along with other policy guide changes.

Capital Markets

If you’re wondering where the mortgage market is headed in 2026, this webinar is a must-watch. Yesterday’s Agile Trader Talk webinar explored the 2025–2026 market outlook at a pivotal time, as shifting monetary policy, liquidity conditions, technological advances, and geopolitical developments continue to reshape the financial landscape. Hosted by Agile President Greg Vacura, the conversation featured leading broker-dealer panelists who break down major market trends, deal flow expectations, regulatory and compliance considerations, and the opportunities and risks on the horizon for 2026. The discussion offered timely insights into market structure, trading dynamics, and the forces most likely to influence the road ahead. View the recording to learn more, then join Agile’s newsletter to be notified of upcoming releases.

Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the MBS market, which in turn is influenced by supply and demand. Investors are increasingly turning to U.S. mortgage-backed securities as a refuge from high valuations in corporate bonds and a surge in tech bond issuance to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. JPMorgan Chase projects investment-grade issuance to exceed $800 billion in 2026, with significant contributions from tech firms. Mortgage bonds, on the other hand, are set for their best returns in two decades, driven by stable supply and strong demand from real estate investment trusts and potentially banks.

Ginnie Mae knows a thing or two about MBS, and its combined September and October 2025 update shows the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding increased from $2.83 trillion to $2.84 trillion. Monthly issuance reached $46.8 billion in September and $50.2 billion in October totaling $97 billion, contributing to $23.1 billion in net portfolio growth. Ginnie Mae supported the pooling and securitization of loans for more than 286,000 American households, including over 126,000 first-time homebuyers, helping strengthen liquidity and stability throughout the U.S. housing finance system. Key highlights from the September issuance include $44.4 billion in Ginnie Mae II MBS, $2.4 billion in Ginnie Mae I MBS, including $2.3 billion for multifamily housing loans, and the pooling and securitization of loans for more than 138,000 households, including over 65,000 first-time homebuyers. Key highlights from the October issuance include $48.3 billion in Ginnie Mae II MBS, $1.8 billion in Ginnie Mae I MBS, including $1.8 billion for multifamily housing loans, and the pooling and securitization of loans for more than 148,000 households, including over 61,000 first-time homebuyers. For all the stats, visit Ginnie Mae Disclosure.

All this talk about how the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates, meanwhile expectations for a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan lifted the 10-yr JGB yield to a level not seen since 2007 yesterday and there are also expectations for an eventual rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia after the release of strong household spending data. Markets are increasingly focused on the labor market as the dominant driver of FOMC policy expectations, with tariff-linked inflation fears fading and global rate pressures failing to meaningfully influence U.S. yields. The next meaningful shift in yields is more likely to come from the Fed’s tone, guidance, and updated projections at the conclusion of its meeting next week rather than from incoming macro releases.

The U.S. rates market remains firmly range-bound, with 2-year yields near 3.50 percent and 10-year yields holding between roughly 4.00 percent and 4.15 percent. Weak ADP data from earlier this week cemented expectations for a 25-basis points Fed cut this upcoming Wednesday and a more balanced policy tone, while inflation continues to moderate. However, labor market signals are becoming increasingly hard to decipher, between the aforementioned weak ADP figures, delayed BLS data, and initial jobless claims hitting a two-year low this week. Concerns about a potentially more dovish Hassett-led Fed and related reflation worries are simmering, but the broader backdrop leaves investors comfortable with range-bound trading. Any sharp sell-off in bonds is likely to attract buyers, especially if 10-year yields approach 4.15 percent.

Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey: for the week ending December 4, the 30- and 15-year mortgage rates fell 4-basis points and 7-basis points to 6.19 percent and 5.44 percent, respectively, and are within 3-basis points of the YTD lows from October. From a year ago, rates are 50-basis points and 52-basis points lower.

Today’s economic calendar has, at some point, the much-delayed PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) report for September along with preliminary December Michigan sentiment. Expectations are for personal income and spending increasing 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent month-over-month, versus 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent previously, with the core PCE Price Index increasing 0.2 percent month-over-month and 2.8 percent year-over-year versus 0.2 percent and 2.9 percent in August. Consumer credit for October rounds out this week’s calendar in the afternoon. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.53, and the 10-year yielding 4.11 after closing yesterday at 4.11 percent.