I have a prediction... 

I know what the market is going to do tomorrow.  Yes!  Even before it happens!!

I just KNOW (note sarcasm please) that by tomorrow afternoon we'll be able to define the movements of mortgage rates with this phrase "more of the same."

This is quite fitting seeing as how tomorrow is Groundhog Day.

Beyond that, I figure the last 6-weeks of back and forth behavior in the primary mortgage market should serve as fair warning of what to expect until otherwise noted. Back and forth and back and forth, from one end of the borrowing cost range to the other.

This is quite fitting seeing as how tomorrow is Groundhog Day.

Beyond that, I figure the last 6-weeks of back and forth behavior in the primary mortgage market should serve as fair warning of what to expect until otherwise noted. Back and forth and back and forth, from one end of the borrowing cost range to the other.

Sorry I couldn't resist. Moving on....

And that range hasn't been very wide either!  In fact, best execution MORTGAGE RATES themselves haven't really moved.  The only real adjustments have come in the form of CLOSING COSTS.  In terms of an old-school radio dial, think of "rates" like the tuning knob and "costs" like the fine-tuning dial.  The market is not moving enough to change prevalent rates, so it's up to that fine tuning knob to convey the day-to-day changes.

So today, as usually happens after rates move to the better end of their range and we start talking about opportunities (Friday), we now find ourselves a few days later at the other end of the closing cost range.  Gladly, that preserves 4.875% as the prevalent rate being offered right now, but weakness in the bond market today means that it's going to cost you more than it would have yesterday (on average about $400 bucks for every $100k borrowed).

On conventional 30 year fixed loans Best Execution is 4.875%. FHA/VA 30 year fixed home loans are best priced at 4.75%. If you're shopping for a 15 year fixed mortgage rate, we see a sweet spot between at 4.25%. On 5-year ARMs, we've heard of very well qualified borrowers being quoted rates as low as 3.50%.

It's that HIGH RISK time of month again where the most influential economic report is soon to be released. The Employment Situation Report prints this Friday!  This is the best chance we have to break out of the recent range.  Thing is, we won't know until Friday if rates will stay in their rut or make a directional move. Higher or Lower. Both are just as likely at this point.  

Until next time...  Don't lock angry!

"Bext Execution" is the most efficient combination of note rate and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%.  When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you originator to explain the findings of their "breakeven analysis" on your permanent rate buydown costs.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the "perfect borrower" category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive. "No point" loan doesn't mean "no cost" loan. The best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don't forget the intense fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process