“I just won $10 in the lottery! The 7-11 clerk wanted to sell me a $10 lottery ticket in Atlanta. I said no.” Hopefully most people realize that a lottery is simply a tax on people who don’t know math (given the odds of winning). But the amount of equity that homeowners have, as a whole, is a sure thing… and staggering. U.S. homeowners now hold a record $17.8 trillion in equity, per ICE, including $11.6 trillion that’s “tappable.” That, versus the trillions in high interest credit card, auto, and student debt, certainly points to continued HELOC and 2nd mortgage offerings. That’s one trend, but there are others. The MBA’s Marina Walsh told us in the Loan Vision audience in Atlanta that the MBA expects a 1 percent home price average appreciation rate. As always, it is based on location and price point. Overall origination points at $1.7 trillion last year moving up to $2 trillion this year. Lenders, however, know that units are important, and those are expected to go from 4.572 million up to 5.598 million units. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s podcasts are sponsored by BeSmartee, the most innovative mortgage technology platform for banks, credit unions, and non-bank mortgage lenders. Hear an interview with Guideline Buddy’s Marc Hernandez on AI-powered tools designed to bring instant clarity and confident decision-making to mortgage guidelines, helping industry professionals structure loans faster and more accurately, combining human-in-the-loop intelligence with plans for broader tech integration and white-label partnerships.)
Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers
Fuel mortgage loan growth with fewer clicks and greater control. With touchless lending, smart workflow routing, transparent pricing, and trusted compliance partners, the updated MeridianLink® Mortgage product suite is the agile, comprehensive solution designed to meet your business needs at every stage of your growth journey. But that’s just a taste of what this tech can do! See how else the latest enhancements to our mortgage lending solution are equipped to help you boost loan volume and bolster borrower relationships.
“Vegas? We’re all in. Meet the Axos Bank Warehouse Lending team at the MBA Annual Convention & Expo in Las Vegas on Oct. 19-22. We’re proud to support mortgage banks as they scale, and we’ve built our platform to deliver speed, reliability, and a partner-focused approach. We provide warehouse lines from $20MM to $400MM, extended funding cutoff to 6:15 p.m. ET, access to over 100 takeout investors, and diverse product coverage, including reverse, second lines, and non-QM loans. If you’re attending, let’s schedule time to discuss how Axos can help maximize your origination opportunities with fast and flexible warehouse lending solutions. Email Eric Nelepovitz, Bobby Martini, and Justin Castillo, AMP. Not attending the conference? We’re still ready to answer your questions. Visit Axos Bank Residential Warehouse Lending to learn more.”
“The real estate and mortgage market is in a constant state of flux, with even more changes to come before the year comes to an end. Lenders are actively preparing for new quality control standards that will take effect on October 1, 2025, requiring greater transparency in how automated valuation models (AVMs) determine property values to deliver unbiased results. ICE’s Property Valuation Model, powered by eight advanced ICE AVMs, can help lenders address today’s challenges and prepare for tomorrow’s advancements. Seamlessly integrated into the Encompass® loan origination system, this model selects the most appropriate AVM based on geography, property type and living area, delivering more consistent, objective property values. Whether you're evaluating your current tools or exploring new solutions, ICE is here to help. Read our new blog, Are your valuation tools ready for what’s next?, to discover valuable insights to help you stay ahead of regulatory changes and make smarter, data-driven decisions.”
Last Week, ChatMMI Got Even Better, giving You a Faster Path to Deals. ChatMMI’s latest upgrade just made turning data into deals easier than ever. With smarter routing and topic switching, you no longer have to guess where to look… Just ask and get exactly what you need. Conversation history lets you save insights, share them with your team, and take action together. Rich visuals like MLS images and Google Street View make every answer more actionable. Mobile access with voice input means you can check market share or retention rates between appointments. Ask questions like: “Which lenders are picking up the volume we’ve lost?” or “Which borrowers in my past book can have PMI removed?” Built on MMI’s unmatched mortgage data, ChatMMI helps loan officers, recruiters, marketers, and executives uncover opportunities they’ve been missing, and act faster to grow production and retention. See ChatMMI in action.
“Exceptional sub-servicing starts with experience, and ends with superior results. At Planet, we manage residential and commercial assets with precision, transparency, and customized strategies. Our S&P and Fitch-rated platform supports agency and non-agency portfolios, including Non-QM, DSCR, RTL, and SFR. From onboarding through payoff, REO, or sale, you receive attentive oversight, strong execution, and a partner committed to protecting performance. Ready to elevate your servicing experience? To secure your MBA Annual meeting, email us.”
ACES Quality Management Launches ACES Intelligence™, Redefining Mortgage and Financial Services Quality Control with AI. ACES Intelligence, the industry’s first and only AI-powered features for quality control (QC), helps ACES customers improve quality, speed and efficiency by enhancing loan reviews, selection and compliance. ACES Intelligence empowers users to write exceptions, build loan selection queries in plain English, and summarize audits in seconds, dramatically cutting exception writing time. Early adopters like The Loan Store noted it "saves time by turning complex audit data into actionable summaries." The quality control team at Georgia’s Own Credit Union said the tool reduces review time by “countless minutes” per loan, equating to hours saved on a full audit. "Implementing ACES Intelligence into our workflow has been a game-changer," said Todd Krell, partner at CrossCheck Compliance LLC. He added, "The efficiency ACES Intelligence brings has noticeably improved our overall productivity and better equips us to serve our clients." Learn more about ACES Intelligence.
“Tradeshow season is here and Cotality is everywhere you’re going to be! We will be out and about this fall showcasing our Intelligent Marketing Solutions on Araya at multiple events over the next several weeks. We will be conducting onsite demos showcasing how Araya’s five powerful solutions, built on a single platform can help mortgage originators of all sizes. Stop by and see us at NAMB National, MBA Annual or AIME Fuse over the middle of October and see how we can help you reduce tech stack costs and increase your productivity. Contact us today to schedule a demo or set some time to meet with us at a show.”
If you missed the live webinar with ICE Mortgage Technology’s Eric Kujala and LenderLogix, the full replay is now available. The webinar showed how lenders are extending Encompass® workflows into the borrower experience to streamline fee collection, verifications, and credit ordering through the POS. The conversation highlighted real examples of how smart institutions are reducing manual work for loan officers while creating a smoother borrower journey. This is one of those sessions' worth catching up on if you want to see where Encompass® automation is heading. Watch the replay here!
Marketing approvals taking hours (or days)? Meet TrustFrame from ActiveComply, an AI-assisted marketing approvals software that automatically reviews marketing within minutes, highlighting issues on the marketing piece, and speeding approvals with custom rulesets. Incorporate ActiveComply's TrustFrame into a proactive marketing review process for flyers, marketing images, blog posts, and more. Want to be one of the first to know when TrustFrame is available or see a preview at MBA Compliance & Risk in Washington, DC (Sept 28–30)? Reach out to learn more!
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Correspondent and Broker Products
The MBA Annual Convention is just around the corner, and the Citi Correspondent Lending Team is looking forward to connecting with current and prospective clients in Las Vegas! With many recent developments and new opportunities on the horizon, Citi has the products and programs you can leverage to spur growth in your business. Whether a current or prospective client, make Citi part of your convention plans by reaching out to the Account Executive supporting your location to schedule time. If you’re not attending, let’s make time before the end of the year to discuss opportunities to take your business to new levels in 2026. Prospective clients can also complete and return our Prospective Client Questionnaire.
The Shift to Non-Agency
NFM’s Greg Sher asked, “What's at the end of the Non-QM rainbow, a pot of gold or another lending crisis? We now have bank statement loans, varying rate structures, and qualification based on investment property income. What could possibly go wrong? “Non-QM loans have grown 53 percent in the last 12 months from 5.21 percent market share to 8 percent. investor/DSCR loans = 28.7 percent of non-QM volume, bank statement loans hold 33.7 percent share, and other alternative documentation methods = 37.6 percent. If the Non-QM market continues at this clip (53 percent growth), we'll be at 15 percent in less than 2 years. Investors are falling all over themselves to grab this paper. But why?
“Here's one answer from an aggressive buyer, Verus Mortgage Capital. In a blog post from April 2025, it shared its plans to gobble up $10 billion of it in ‘25 alone. Its reasoning? ‘As banks withdraw from traditional lending and more self-employed and non-traditional borrowers seek financing, demand for innovative lending solutions grows. Non-QM loan address this demand, providing robust margins and significant market scalability.’
“Robust margins. Those 2 words really stand out. Of course, robust margins come at a price. And that price can come in many forms (think higher rates, higher payments, more pressure on the consumer in a downturn) and the Molotov cocktail in this is investment property income: that too, is a variable with fangs.
“So, back to my question. What could go wrong? Maybe nothing. Maybe this is just want the post-Covid gig economy needs. These loans are not saleable to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Maybe this is the infusion of private capital the industry needs to be less agency-dependent.
“So what's giving me pause? The benefit of hindsight, perhaps, that comes from being in the industry nearly 30 years. History reminds me that when this industry sprints in a direction this hard, particularly around products related to unconventional qualification methods, there usually ends up being a twist to the story… And a shoe that drops somewhere along the way.
“No, this isn't sub-prime (so no screaming at me) and the FICO band tends to sit above 700 (although many companies go down as low as 600 on some products). Still, I'm calling timeout to get a conversation going. I'm told this is ‘different’ this time. But let's be honest, it always feels ‘different’ during the climb. It's the decent I'm concerned about. Or maybe there won't be one. You tell me.”
[Editor’s note: Although a “time out” in any competitive market situation is not going to happen, the points raised did elicit several comments in the link above. Many remember very well in the late 90s and early 2000s companies fighting over the A- to B paper space, like Greenpoint with a rate sheet that was dozens of pages long. What happened? Margin compression and underwriting compression. Most hope that the “ability to repay” rules keep the latter from happening. Investors want yield, and they like mortgages. Good for them! Many believe that the Agencies losing market share is intentional, and that a simple cut in gfees or LLPAs can bring them back into contention. But that is not happening for a variety of reasons, so volume goes elsewhere. It’s the free market.]
Capital Markets
The connection between mortgage loan pricing and capital markets is often misunderstood, even within the mortgage industry. So how exactly do lenders determine mortgage prices? While many point to MBS activity and mortgage spreads as the drivers, these factors are not directly built into pricing methodologies. MCT’s whitepaper, The Links Between MBS Markets and Loan Prices, provides clarity on these misconceptions and explains how loan pricing is determined. Download the whitepaper for a deeper understanding of the inputs that influence residential mortgage pricing.
The U.S. economy is driven by jobs and housing, and the psychology has shifted. Seasonal hiring in 2025 is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2009, with retailers and transportation companies showing muted demand for temporary workers amid ongoing economic uncertainty, inflation pressures, and a growing reliance on automation and permanent staff. Retail hiring is projected to add fewer than 500,000 jobs in Q4, down from 543,100 last year, while transportation and warehousing are also expected to see further declines after hitting a five-year low in 2024. Despite some hiring announcements from major retailers like Bath & Body Works and Spirit Halloween, most companies are opting for leaner staffing strategies, signaling a “do more with less” mindset heading into the holiday season.
In the wake of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the first time since December, bond yields have actually gone up since then. So, contrary to the belief of your borrower waiting to lock because “rates are coming down,” as well as large swaths of hopeful employees in the mortgage industry, rates actually haven’t found a ceiling since the FOMC decision last week. Keep in mind that the benefit of lower rates is limited at a time when housing affordability remains poor and workers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs.
Why have rates gone up? Because markets interpreted the Fed’s tone as hawkish and it turns out that economic data shows signs that inflation is still persistent. Accordingly, fewer rate cuts are likely than were expected prior to the meeting, pushing long-term yields higher. We should still see a cut next month: the market is pricing in a very low probability (around 7 percent) that incoming data compels the Fed to hold rates steady at its October meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Daly spoke yesterday, saying that she “fully supported” last week’s cut, and further interest-rate cuts are likely needed, but the Fed should approach those with caution as it works to restore price stability while providing needed support to the labor market.
New home sales unexpectedly surged 20.5 percent in August, the strongest pace since January 2022, buoyed by slightly lower mortgage rates and aggressive builder incentives, including price cuts reported by nearly 40 percent of builders. While the headline number exceeded expectations and signals that homebuilders are finding ways to entice buyers off the sidelines, many economists caution against overinterpreting the data due to its volatility and frequent revisions.
The overall trend in new home sales the past couple of years has been relatively flat, and some analysts consider the August spike "implausible" and expect a pullback. The rise in high-end home purchases, particularly those above $800,000, helped inflate average prices and may reflect wealth-driven confidence tied to recent stock market gains. However, with inventories still high relative to sales, a slowdown in single-family construction appears likely, meaning residential investment will probably continue to weigh on GDP growth in the coming quarters, even as mortgage market indicators show signs of short-term strength.
Today’s economic calendar is packed with data, supply, and Fed speakers. The data portion is already underway with the usual jobless claims (218k, a touch lower than expected; 1.926 million continuing claims), durable goods orders, the final look at Q2 GDP (+3.8 percent annualized, a big jump but old news,) and advanced indicators (personal spending was +2.5 percent, core PCE was +2.1 percent). Later today brings existing home sales (forecasted to fall to 3.92 million in August from 4.10 million in July), Kansas City Fed manufacturing, Treasury activity that will be headlined by $44 billion 7-year notes (yesterday's $70 billion 5-year auction met mediocre demand), Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 25, and no less than seven Fed speakers (Chicago’s Goolsbee, Kansas City’s Schmid, New York’s Williams, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, Governor Barr, Dallas’ Logan, and San Francisco’s Daly). We begin Thursday, after the salvo of news, with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.64, and the 10-year yielding 4.17 after closing yesterday at 4.15 percent.
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