Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market mover after the jobs report. With that in mind, it might seem surprising that MBS are heading out the door roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are down less than 3bps. It becomes less surprising when we consider inflation was mostly in line with expectations. Elevated unrounded core numbers were offset by decent drop in supercore (services excluding energy and shelter). When it comes to this morning's initial rally, we'd give more credit to supercore than we would to the pop in Jobless Claims, but both probably played a role. Either way, all today's CPI really needed to do was stay out of the way of rate cut signals in the last jobs report, and it generally did. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Aug)/30 1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev Continued Claims (Aug)/30 1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev Jobless Claims (Sep)/06 263K vs 235K f'cast, 237K prev Jobless Claims (Sep)/06 263K vs 235K f'cast, 237K prev m/m CORE CPI (Aug) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev m/m CORE CPI (Aug) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev m/m Headline CPI (Aug) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Aug) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev y/y CORE CPI (Aug) 3.1% vs 3.1% f'cast, 3.1% prev y/y CORE CPI (Aug) 3.1% vs 3.1% f'cast, 3.1% prev y/y Headline CPI (Aug) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.7% prev y/y Headline CPI (Aug) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Initially stronger after data, but pulling back a bit.  MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.032 02:03 PM Holding modest gains.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.2bps at 4.017 04:05 PM Fairly flat, but near weaker levels of the past few hours. MBS up only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.02

September 11, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 11, 2025 Mortgage Rates Move Back to Long-Term Lows Thu, Sep 11, 2025 3:51PM Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly calm.  There are multiple subheadings of data that the bond market cares about when it come to CPI. Most of them were in line with expectations, or close enough to avoid surprising investors. The absence of surprise gave way to some improvement in bonds which, in turn, allowed mortgage lenders to start the day at just slightly lower levels.  Additionally, a higher reading in this morning's weekly jobless claims report may have helped. ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.59 -0.37   95.05 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.03 -0.20   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.050   3.643 4.780 Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising Thu, Sep 11, 2025 4:25PM Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market mover after the jobs report. With that in mind, it might seem surprising that MBS are heading out the door roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are down less than 3bps. It becomes less surprising when we consider infl... (read more) Slightly Stronger Start Despite Slightly Higher Inflation Thu, Sep 11, 2025 12:10PM It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction.  At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly CPI was 0.346%, almost high enough to make for a 0.4 vs 0.3 reading). Additionally, monthly headline inflation was 0.4 vs 0.3. These numbers, in and of themselves, wo... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.63 -0.41 UMBS 5.0 99.59 -0.37 UMBS 5.5 101.03 -0.20 GNMA 4.5 98.02 -0.14 GNMA 5.0 99.82 -0.38 GNMA 5.5 100.89 -0.32 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:27PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.564 +0.060 5 YR Treasury 3.656 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 3.839 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.050 30 YR Treasury 4.688 +0.036 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:27PM EST Other News Recapture, Compliance, Marketing, Warehouse Mgt. Tools; Webinars and Training This Week; 10-Year Yield Hits 4.00 Thu, Sep 11, 2025 11:41AM “All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline. “A dip in corporate AI adoption isn't a great sign for an industry hellbent on world domination.” I am good at misunderestimating things, but will it go the way of blockchain (which is alive and simmering, but... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage rates dip after 10-year yield drops below 4% Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless cl... Senate Banking Committee votes to recommend Stephen Miran for Fed seat Wholesale inventories +0.1% vs. +0.2 estimated Around the Web CNBC Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2025 in one chart CNBC Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless claims jump CNBC These 7 major cities are favoring buyers as the U.S. housing market reaches a 'rare state of balance' Eye on Housing Parking Trends in Newly Completed Single-Family Homes, 2024 CNBC Health care inflation rises as patients, employers brace for biggest jump in health spending in 15 years CNBC Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.1% in August, as Fed rate decision looms CNBC U.S. median household income rose slightly in 2024the bump may still be 'economically meaningful,' economist says CNBC 10-year Treasury yield rises ahead of U.S. inflation print CNBC Treasury Secretary Bessent met this week with Warsh, Lindsey and Bullard as Fed chief search continues Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 263,000; Highest Since 2021 Calculated Risk Blog Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.4% YoY in July Eye on Housing Year-over-Year Building Material Price Growth Advances CNBC European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged as tariff fallout lingers

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