It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgage rates. For that, we'd need to consider the arcane underpinnings of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market.  These are the bond-like instruments that represent large groups of mortgage debt that can be traded among investors.  MBS are broken out into coupons in 0.5% increments.  Only certain mortgage rates are allowed in certain MBS coupons (think of them like buckets). The bucket that had been the most active could hold rates up to 6.625% and it is suddenly losing favor to the next lower bucket which holds rates up to 6.125%. One need not necessarily understand all of that--just the implication that rates can drop more quickly than normal as they approach the upper limits of the next lower bucket. In other words, the recent stint of rates near 6.5% meant that the 6.625% bucket was hanging onto relevance and the 6.125% bucket was still a bit out of reach.  Now today, the 6.125% is vying for higher relevance, thus the slippery slide down toward 6.125%. NERD ALERT: for those that truly desire the underlying specifics, the upper bucket is a 5.5% UMBS coupon which can accommodate rates from 5.75 to 6.625 and the suddenly more fashionable bucket is the 5.0% UMBS coupon which holds rates from 5.25-6.125. MBS investors desire a certain sense of certainty about how long the underlying loans will last before mortgage borrowers refinance. By exhibiting stronger demand for the 5.0% UMBS coupon (the bucket that tops out at 6.125%), investors are basically saying they'd rather sacrifice a bit of present-day rate of return in exchange for more certainty of collecting that rate of return for a longer period of time in a market where rates are falling. Reason being: if they bought 5.5 UMBS and mortgage borrowers refinanced in the near future, that principal would now need to be reinvested at rates that could be even lower than they are today.   There's an even deeper dive in the MBS Live knowledge base HERE.

September 5, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 5, 2025 Mortgage Rates Plummet Back to Fall 2024 Levels Fri, Sep 5, 2025 11:51AM It's a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last month in grand fashion, and it is happening again this morning.  Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is a count of new jobs created, came in at a mere 22k for August versus a median forecast of 75k. This is actually not the biggest miss when it comes to NFP, but it's big enough to spark a reaction in the bond market. In general, weaker jobs numbers prompt investors to buy bonds. When investors buy bonds, the price of those bonds goes up. When bon... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.67 +0.09   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.10   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.075 -0.006   3.643 4.780 A Quick Note on Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds Fri, Sep 5, 2025 12:32PM It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgage rates. For that, we'd need to consider the arcane underpinnings of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market.  These are the bond-like instruments that represent large groups of mortgage debt that can ... (read more) Another Weak Jobs Report. Another Bond Rally Fri, Sep 5, 2025 9:07AM It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. The only real caveat is that the unemployment rate suggests a more gentle softening of labor market conditions--a fact that likely accounts for 10yr yields "only" being 6-7bps lower in the first half hour of post... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.69 +0.06 UMBS 5.0 99.68 +0.09 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.10 GNMA 4.5 98.08 +0.06 GNMA 5.0 99.98 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 101.00 +0.12 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:15PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.541 -0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.639 -0.017 7 YR Treasury 3.824 -0.015 10 YR Treasury 4.076 -0.005 30 YR Treasury 4.676 -0.012 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:15PM EST Other News Bridge Loan, Investment Property, Default Tools; Training and Webinars; Job Data Solidifies Fed Rate Cut? Fri, Sep 5, 2025 11:29AM The Fed looks at Twitter to gauge the financial sentiment out there? Yes: TFSI! The Federal Reserve certainly finds itself in a maelstrom these days… it’s as if we have nothing else to talk about. This weekend Robbie and I head to Boise for the Pacific Northwest Mortgage Lenders Conference where I’m sure the Fed and its members will be discussed, as will Tex... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage rates drop on jobs report White House advisor Hassett: Jobs number is 'disappointing,' but I expect i... Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hirin... Roger Ferguson on August jobs report: A September rate cut 'may be appropri... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog What will happen with House Prices? CNBC Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown Calculated Risk Blog Comments on August Employment Report Yahoo Companies tap US bond market for nearly $70 billion, starting September on a busy note Marketwatch Jobless claims rise to highest level since June adding to concern over labor market CNBC Demand for industrial space falls for the first time in 15 years Eye on Housing HVAC in New Construction in 2024 CNBC The August jobs report could confirm a slowing labor market. But will stocks care? CNBC U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors await key August jobs report Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking Calculated Risk Blog Light Vehicles Sales Decreased to 16.07 million SAAR in August S&P Global US service sector growth remains positive in August

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