Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours.  At that point, lighter summertime Friday afternoon trading gave way to a mini snowball that took yields to their highest levels of the week.  Fed Funds futures suggested some thought behind the selling with the highest implied September rate since just before Tuesday's CPI. All that having been said, bonds could simply be hedging their optimism ahead of next week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In the bigger picture, little has changed since last Friday's jobs report. Econ Data / Events Export prices mm (Jul) 0.1% vs 0.1% f'cast, prev 0.5% Import prices mm (Jul) 0.4% vs 0.0% f'cast, prev -0.1% NY Fed Manufacturing (Aug) 11.90 vs 0.0 f'cast, prev 5.50 Retail Sales (Jul) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, prev 0.6% Retail Sales (ex-autos) (Jul) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, prev 0.8% Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul) 0.5% vs 0.4% f'cast, prev 0.8% Market Movement Recap 09:03 AM Mixed reaction to econ data, but broadly sideways.  10yr down 0.2bps at 4.284 and MBS up 1 tick (.03). 12:22 PM 10yr yields are now up 3.5bps on the day at 4.321. MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over an eighth from highs 12:51 PM just a bit weaker now.  MBS down almost an eighth on the day and more than an eighth from early rate sheets.  10yr up 4.1bps at 4.327 03:25 PM Off the very weakest levels heading into the close with MBS down an eighth and 10yr yields up 3.9bps at 4.325

August 15, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 15, 2025 Highest Rates This Week, But Close Enough to Long Term Lows Fri, Aug 15, 2025 2:17PM Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales data was generally stronger than expected, especially when considering revisions and when focusing on the "core" numbers that strip out more volatile categories such as autos/fuel and building materials. Bonds (which underlie rates) didn't move too much at first, but began losing ground amid the tougher Friday afternoon trading conditions. When bonds lose ground, it implies upward pressure on rates. Several lenders reissued slightly higher rat... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications Fri, Aug 15, 2025 3:30PM Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours.  At that point, lighter summertime Friday afternoon trading gave way to a mini snowball that took... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:28AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:28AM EST Other News Borrower Retention Products; Strong Non-QM Investor Demand; Econ News; Ginnie Growth Fri, Aug 15, 2025 11:45AM “The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your company require supervision or super vision to go forward? Speaking of which, when did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to... (read more) Latest Video Consumer sentiment comes in at 58.6 vs. 62.5 estimated Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected Industrial production -0.1% vs. expectations it would remain unchanged Refinance applications rise to strongest level since April Around the Web CNBC Fed's Goolsbee sees 'note of unease' as central bank looks to next interest rate move Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in July Eye on Housing Credit Conditions for Builders Tighten FXStreet Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops To 58.6; SP500 Tests Session Lows Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July FXStreet US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 224K last week Eye on Housing Building Material Prices Rise in July Eye on Housing June Single-Family Permits Slumps, Multifamily Gains Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025 CNBC Treasury yields flat ahead of key import price and retail sales data Marketwatch Why both bulls and bears may want to be making the same bond-market trade

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