In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM.  While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potentially, at least--the impact of economic data is generally muted for now.  Investors know things are bad.  They don't need data to confirm it.  Markets will be more interested to know when things start to improve, and for that, they'll be looking to coronavirus-related data and local government quarantine/reopening policies before economic reports that may take months to reflect reality. All that do say the bond market is just doing its thing until something changes with respect to the coronavirus outlook.  " Its thing " can include pretty much any movement inside the recent range (roughly .54 to .67, although the early April highs in 10yr yields--.77--still aren't that high in the bigger picture). The nice thing about yields being low and stable is that mortgage rates are also low and stable.  But are they as low as they should be?  Unless we dig a bit deeper, all the casual observer can see is that MBS prices are at all-time highs and rates are at all-time lows (according to Freddie Mac's weekly data, anyway...  You and I know that early March saw lower mortgage rates on average). Now consider this relatively mind-blowing factoid: MBS prices are currently just over 104, but in the first week of March (when the average lender was at all-time low rates), prices were just under 103!  So we're more than full point better in price right now and the average rate is actually higher!  In other words, the Fed has succeeded in making MBS more competitive, just as it has on several occasions in the past. But the difference between now and then is the extreme level of disconnection between mortgage rates and MBS.  Notably though, that disconnection had been ramping up heading into QE3, but that was more a factor of rates and bond yields being exceptionally low in the bigger picture.  In general, the lower the overall bond market moves in yield, the wider the spread between rates and MBS, and MBS to Treasuries. The widest/highest spreads in both of today's charts in early 2020 and 2011/2012 occurred when Treasuries were rushing to new long-term lows and immediately preceded bond-buying involvement from the Fed. Why haven't rates taken the same hints as in the past?  Simply put, we're waiting for the forbearance tidal wave to die down.  That will help the healing process to begin, but keep in mind that we have no historical context for a baseline rate environment with 10yr yields under 1%.  It could be that we define a new range of spreads in such an environment.  Even so, that would only suggest a moderate change/elevation in spreads.  There's still plenty of room to tighten.  It's just going to take more time than we'd like.

May 1, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 1, 2020 Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month, For Some Anyway Thu, Apr 30, 2020 5:42PM Mortgage rates moved down again today, bringing the average lender to their best levels since the 2nd week of March. Some lenders are quoting their lowest rates ever, but early March 2020 averages are still decidedly lower. You may have seen other articles today claiming "all-time lows." Some of those articles may even be quoting me (although they don't quote me in support of the "all-time low" headline). Who's right? In terms of the average rate on any given day, we're absolutely not yet back to early March levels. That's a fact. Other sources are in apparent disagreement if they're relying o... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 +0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.53 +0.05   99.66 102.53 10 YR Treasury 4.048 -0.039   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Rates Are Low, But How Low Should They Be? Fri, May 1, 2020 10:46AM In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM.  While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potentially, at least--the impact of economic data is generally muted for now.  Investors know things are bad.  They don't need data to confirm it.  Markets will be more interested to know when thi... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.74 +0.27 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.53 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.09 +0.27 GNMA 5.5 101.22 +0.09 GNMA 6.0 102.16 +0.02 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:51PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.495 -0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.567 -0.022 7 YR Treasury 3.771 -0.030 10 YR Treasury 4.042 -0.045 30 YR Treasury 4.687 -0.083 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:51PM EST Other News Fannie Profit Plummets; Forbearance Fears Confirmed Fri, May 1, 2020 12:36PM Given their respective sizes, the economic dislocation created by the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have hit Fannie Mae harder than its competitor GSE Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae said on Friday that it had total comprehensive income of $0.476 billion in the first quarter of 2020, down from $4.266 billion the previous quarter. Freddie Mac, while down significantly... (read more) Home Seller Profits Still Significant Despite Coronavirus Impact Fri, May 1, 2020 11:07AM Homeownership continued to be a significant builder of household wealth in the first quarter of this year. ATTOM Data Solutions said home sellers nationwide realized a home price gain of $67,100 on a typical sale during the quarter, up from $66,264 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and from $59,000 in the first quarter of 2019. The profit represented a return on... (read more) Forbearance Count Nears Four Million, 7.3% of all Mortgages Fri, May 1, 2020 9:47AM The number of COVID-19 related forbearance plans in effect with servicers continued to increase through the end of April according to a report released on Friday by Black Knight. Forbearance is the temporary suspension or reduction of a required payment. As of April 30, more than 3.8 million home mortgages, 7.3 percent of all active obligations , are in such... (read more) Correspondent Programs; Large and Small Investors Continue Program Shifts Fri, May 1, 2020 10:01AM May Day! A third of the way through with 2020 already? Seven weeks ago it was, “Use us! We have the best rates and products!” Now it’s, “During these challenging times, use us! We have the best rates and products! Stay healthy!” Lenders seem to be healthy as April is another month for lender’s record books: lots of anecdot... (read more) Latest Video Bank of America CEO: Stimulus impact will hit over the next few weeks Covid-19 is forcing mortgage and rent delays Coronavirus impacts college affordability—What students should know Market underestimating how weak economy will remain after reopening: Pro Around the Web CNBC Gilead gets emergency FDA authorization for remdesivir to treat coronavirus, Trump says Reuters Fed officials worry about lasting economic scars from crisis CNBC Homeowners should grab this emergency lifeline before it dries up Reuters Georgia businesses free to reopen as other U.S. states edge out of coronavirus shutdown Reuters JPMorgan Chase approved to process $15 billion in new PPP loans Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline Reuters World Stocks fall as Trump's China tariff threat dampens risk appetite NAHB Eye on Housing Absorption Rate for Apartments Remained Stable in Q3 2019 Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased in March CNBC April's ISM manufacturing index is 41.5, vs 35 estimate CNBC More big employers are talking about permanent work-from-home positions CNBC Coronavirus mortgage bailout program grows again as more homeowners delay payments CNBC Moderna could begin manufacturing unproven coronavirus vaccine in July, CEO says

© 2025  Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: [recipientemail]. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.