While it doesn't appear to be of "canary in the coalmine" magnitude, CoreLogic notes that there were annual increases in the delinquency rates of eight states in June. Those eight bucked a national trend that has brought the overall delinquency rate down to 4.0 percent, the lowest since at least 1999. That rate, which represents all mortgaged properties with loans 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure, is down 0.3 percent since June 2018.
The company's Loan Performance Report says that the hot spots for increases were Vermont with a 0.7 percent increase, New Hampshire which rose 0.3 percent, and Nebraska and Minnesota, each up 0.2 percent. Four other states, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Connecticut, had nominal gains of 0.1 percent.
There were more significant gains in several metropolitan areas, most significantly Janesville-Beloit, Wisconsin and Pine Bluff, Arkansas with increases of 2.5 and 1.6 percentage points respectively. Panama City, Florida; Altoona, Pennsylvania; and Kokomo, Indiana all experienced increases of 0.6 percentage points.
CoreLogic's president and CEO Frank Martell said, "While the nation continues to post near-record-low mortgage delinquency rates, we are seeing signs of emerging stress in some states. We saw rates jump in states such as Vermont, New Hampshire, Nebraska and Minnesota that weren't tied to a natural disaster."
The serious delinquency rate, loans 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure was 1.7 percent compared to 2.2 percent the prior June. Most of that decline came in loans that were more than 120 days past due. Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure. All states saw those rates decrease except for Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia, which stayed the same. While the 90-day plus rate declined in most metro areas, it was unchanged in 48 areas and increased in 20. The foreclosure inventory, loans in the process of foreclosure, was down 0.1 percent on an annual basis to 0.4 percent.
The CoreLogic report also looks at transition rates, the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The transition rate for loans moving from being current to 30-days past due was 1.1 percent in June compared to 0.9 percent a year earlier. The comparable rate in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis was 1.2 percent. The rate peaked in November of the following year at 2.0 percent.