Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:42 PM
Big rally in oil brings stocks back up and keeps pressure on bonds
Corporate debt supply also hurt Treasuries specifically, but earlier in the day ...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved only slightly higher today on average. Some lenders were effectively unchanged from Friday, which is impressive considering t...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 8:23 AM
"Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to 2...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:53 PM
Jobs report was good, mostly (242k vs 190k forecast, but some internal weakness)
10yr yields breaking 1.84 support is bad
10yr yields holding un...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved only moderately higher today after the Employment Situation report came out much stronger than expected. The all-important jo...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 8:31 AM
Let's not overcomplicate things too much when it comes to the 2016 bond market rally. In fact, let's move in the other direction for a moment and con...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 5:28 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; low volume; lack of inspiration
Domestic trading stayed very flat until 11:20am
Bonds rallied sharply but bri...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the day slightly higher, on average, but managed to make it back in line with yesterday's levels by the afternoon. Some lend...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 7:31 AM
We're getting into some tricky territory with respect to market behavior and predicting the future. 2016 has been fairly unidimensional so far. B...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 5:40 PM
Treasuries flat overnight, despite various cues in other markets
Bonds move weaker following ADP data, but damage immediately contained
Rest of ...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates continued farther into to the highest levels since early February today. The current territory is important in the bigger pi...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 7:31 AM
Whether you fancy a tug-o-war analogy, or perhaps even a good old case of dueling banjos, US bond markets have been in the middle of a relative batt...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Stock rally hurts bonds
Even before that, corporate issuance added pressure
New March trading position-taking (and ultimately, profit-taking and...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates moved quickly higher today, bringing them to levels not seen since early February. It continues to be the case that context is impor...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 9:12 AM
The relationship between short and long term yields is an important indicator for bond markets and the broader economy. 10yr yields are almost alwa...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:41 PM
It was a tremendously calm day for bond markets. In fact, 10yr yields held a range of 1.73 to 1.768--the narrowest of the entire year . Still, the ...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today, recovering only some of the weakness seen over the past several business days. Apart from last Friday, to...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 8:30 AM
Stocks and oil have had a big impact on bonds, but they're not the only story
Central bank rhetoric has been helping Treasuries hold ground when st...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 7:41 PM
After yesterday's strong performance it would have been nice to at least hold those gains. If that had happened, the bigger picture would look decid...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 5:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today--this time at a slightly quicker pace--bringing averages up to the highest levels in at least a week. That ...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 7:34 AM
Over the past few days, we've seen bigger-than-normal intraday swings in bond markets. The day began with one trend in force only to end with tradi...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 5:32 PM
Data overlooked as bonds react to stocks/oil early
Bonds then ignore stock/oil rally later in the day and hold ground at stronger levels
Could ...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, and that leaves them much higher than the long-term lows seen 2 weeks ago. Of course "much" is a relativ...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 9:09 AM
10's have been bouncing at 1.71, secretly, overnight
It's breaking this morning and the next battle is clearly implied by early February trading pa...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds start strong. Good MBS gains and a few positive reprices early
Everything went south as oil jumped off lows
Stocks jumped even higher and...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates generally held their ground today. In fact, rates were lower than yesterday's, on average, but quite a few lenders raised rates from...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 8:52 AM
Bond markets have been slightly weaker over the past few days, but overall, still arguably trading sideways inside a narrow range. Looked at in the m...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 5:12 PM
Sad start, but happy ending for bond markets
"Tradeflows" (the trading cues that remain after we take away any overt cues like economic data, headl...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates experienced some volatility today, but ended up in slightly stronger territory on average. At first, rates were higher, as underlyin...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 9:04 AM
If you're just tuning in to 2016's bond market trends, it's been a good year so far. 10yr yields began around 2.30 and fell as low as 1.53 for a f...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates maintained recent sideways momentum today, holding inside a narrow range established last week. This range is particularly interesti...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:09 PM
Modest losses for Treasuries and MBS by the close
Should have been worse judging by stock/oil gains
Corporate bond supply was big--also typical...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 7:33 AM
I was hyperactively remarking to a mentor back in the day about how things were happening in markets almost exactly as I thought they would. I was ex...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 5:25 PM
Today was a fine day for bond markets. There were no significant gains or losses by the closing bell, and indeed no real drama in between. Treasur...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates improved slightly today, on average, despite modest weakness in underlying bond markets. We discussed this possibility yesterday in ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:39 AM
Rates fight to hold under important long-term ceiling (marked by 1.84% in 10yr yields)
Assessing possibility that last week was a long-term bounce ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:09 PM
Mortgage rates finally held their ground today, earning back some of the ground lost over the past 3 days. While a substantial gap remains between ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:03 PM
Bonds unchanged overnight, then follow German Bunds toward lower yields mid-morning
Oil Inventory data hit oil prices and stocks, thus lubricating ...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 8:38 AM
Technical analysis refers to attempts to understand and predict financial market behavior based solely on financial markets themselves. Specifically,...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 5:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape, but soon succumbed to a steamroller of equity market positivity in the European session. Ri...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates were just a bit higher in most cases today, although some lenders were effectively unchanged from yesterday. If you happened to stop...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 8:15 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins in much the same fashion as the previous week ended: with bond markets considering whether they are under press...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 5:23 PM
When you have a day as weak as last Friday was, the most informative subsequent trading session is one that is either similarly weak or strongly posit...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today, further distancing themselves from last week's 1-yr lows. The average lender continues to quote c...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 9:43 AM
As we all know, the MBS market is personified by a big green dragon . So far in 2016, the dragon has been breathing plenty of fire. Less publicize...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 4:10 PM
Day's like today can't hep but give the average market watcher a bit of a sinking feeling . Was that it? Was yesterday's visit to the lowest yields...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates rose rapidly today, relative to their average intraday movement potential. Things have been far from average, of course, and so it ...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 7:34 AM
Stocks and bond yields ignited a fiery romance in 2016, not letting each other out of sight for almost the entire month of January. That is to say,...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 6:56 PM
Bond markets came thundering in to the domestic trading session today, largely following equally thunderous moves in equities and European stock/bon...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates were widely available at 3.5 percent for much of the day today. At any other time from the middle of 2013 through the end of 2015, ...
