Mortgage rates were steady again today, holding on to the improvements seen yesterday afternoon following a surprise "flash rally" in bond markets. Such flash moves always create the risk that rates will experience a correction that takes them quickly back in the other direction, so today's "flat" performance is actually fairly positive in the bigger picture.
Still, neither today nor yesterday's rate levels are even close to recent extremes. In order to see those boundaries tested (for better or worse) we'll need to wait for the more important events on tap for next week. These include several major economic reports as well as policy announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets slumbered through a quiet Friday, retaining a portion of yesterday's flash rally but remaining in recent ranges. Next week holds inflation data, 10 yield treasury auction, and June's FOMC rate decision/policy announcement, so should be interesting. Hard to fault locking here, unless you have a penchant for risk. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.625-4.75%
- FHA/VA - 4.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.00%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Rates have been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed's increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
- While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it's safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.