I think it's safe to say that, consistently for the last 30 to 45 days, at least one lender (regional, major, or independent) has offered below market "record low" mortgage rates.

Investor demand is consistently healthy for agency MBS, such that their prices are hitting new record highs on a daily basis. No lender faces a shortage of funding, nothing seems to be able to distract mortgage rates from rallying!

This situation has forced us to refocus our attention on the competitiveness of the primary mortgage market, instead of closely monitoring every move in the secondary mortgage market (MBS).

Here's how I would play it....

The "best executed" lock/float strategy comes down to  finding an originator who knows the loan market, studies underwriting guidelines, and just plain old gets the J.O.B done. Victor Burek, the -pittsburgh steelers boston red sox phoenix mercury fan- loan officer who writes on this blog channel everyday, is a good example (1-0).  My dad is another.

SO HERE IT IS CONSUMERS: You have to let the loan officer earn their commission. That's how you "ride the float boat" in this environment...make sure you have a damn good skipper. Plain and Simple.

Now. If you read the above and your first and only response was: LOCK OR FLOAT? (with a numbness in your voice).Then yes. I think mortgage rates can go lower. In fact, I think they just did.

ALERT: There are some lenders out there, if the APP--to-->CLOSING process is flawless, where a borrower could close at 4.25% right now, without paying more than 1 pt.  But you're loan file is gonna have to be a real slam dunk. You must be the definition of "well-qualified".

There it is, I said it! ( as I duck for cover before LOs start tossing stones..)

ps. a message for the professional readers: 3.5s traded yesterday and I've heard of more than one lock desk who is willing to buy 4&aQuarter% loan paper. I've even heard of a few who will bid lower. This might be a limited time offer! Be prepared to pay points!