Fri, Sep 6 2013, 7:35 AM
Today we will receive long-awaited data that does more than anything
else to confirm or reject the notion of September tapering than anything
else...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 5:25 PM
Treasuries and MBS were coming off a rough day heading into this
morning's Employment Situation Report. 10yr yields hit their highest
levels and ...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 12:37 PM
This risk that today's session would bring a pre-NFP "lead off" in
the event of stronger data is coming to nauseating fruition before our
eyes. 1...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 8:02 PM
There's little left to say about today that hasn't already been said in the earlier MBS MID-DAY .
As that post notes, seeing bond markets take a "l...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 7:49 AM
Since the methodology change, 7 out of 9 reports have accurately
predicted the direction of movement in the official private payrolls
tally from...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 12:02 PM
Overnight markets were relatively uneventful with moderate weakness for
Treasuries during Asian hours and a slight recovery during European
hours....
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 6:38 AM
Typically, the Wednesday before an NFP Friday would bring ADP Private
Payrolls at 8:15am, but due to the holiday-shortened week, ADP will now
arri...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 4:32 PM
Focusing too closely on the events and market movements of this
single session could make for challenging and unsatisfying analysis.
Instead, if ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 12:29 PM
Even before this morning's economic data, bond markets were in
weaker territory as the US played catch up to the rest of the world's
Monday tradin...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 8:22 AM
As certainty of the Fed's intent to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting has waxed and waned (and waxed again), one thing
has remained ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 4:30 PM
The first day back after Labor Day weekend offered a bit of excitement
with bond markets on the ropes right from the start. This was primarily
a ...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 11:19 AM
Bond markets were flat for most of the overnight session before weakening in tandem with late European data and early domestic trading. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 5:41 AM
For more reasons than meet the eye, the 3-day Labor Day weekend
coming up is the most relevant near term consideration for markets.
There are oth...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 2:56 PM
In the spirit of a day where many market participants are leaving
early, here's an sneak preview of a recent MBS Live update that would
normally a...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 12:17 PM
It's been an interesting morning so far for bond markets, even if
it's ultimately to be inconsequential. Indeed, the message is being
sent that m...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 7:29 AM
Bond markets have increasingly shown their hand regarding Syria-related headlines and their ability to influence a flight-to-safety
(where stock p...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 4:58 PM
Essentially, nothing has changed since the mid day commentary. The
intro section there is the best recap of why today happened the way it
did. ...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 11:44 AM
The recent reality for bond markets can be viewed in several ways.
We could consider the longer term trend toward higher rates or the more
recent...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 7:11 AM
The mid-point of the week is acceptably plagued by
uncertainty. We can't really be sure which of the events on tap will
have the largest impact...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 4:55 PM
When equities markets made a big "risk-off" move on Monday afternoon
after Kerry's Syria speech, it was plain to see that bond markets
weren't muc...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 12:35 PM
As the morning update below notes, bond markets couldn't help but get
involved with the global flight-to-safety surrounding the turmoil in
Syria. ...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 7:02 AM
The week got off to an interesting but pleasant start for bond
markets with MBS ending the day 3/8ths of a point higher than Friday's
close. Almo...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 4:52 PM
MBS and Treasuries are both near their best levels after a day that
has
been almost exclusively positive thanks to the flight-to-safety
associat...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 11:52 AM
So far today, we've seen one of the quietest, least-offensive post-data
rallies in recent memory. The overnight session set the stage for a
quiet...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 6:58 AM
The week ahead is very different from the week past. Fed speakers
will be out in greater numbers and economic data arrives in abundance.
Top tha...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 5:02 PM
This morning's weaker-than-expected Durable Goods numbers started the
day off positively for MBS and Treasuries. MBS especially were solid
all da...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 11:29 AM
While there was a normal amount of overnight trading and volatility,
none of it really matters considering bond markets were near unchanged
levels...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 4:52 PM
Weaker-than-expected New Home Sales data threw bond markets for a
loop today. There was essentially no data on tap this whole week, with
the exce...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 1:22 AM
I once read that if the title of an article is phrased in the form of
a question that the answer is "no"--something to do with an author
that's no...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 11:26 AM
MBS are in slightly positive territory for now, but advancing to
anything more triumphant has proven quite challenging so far. Fannie
4.0s saw th...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 7:37 AM
What would an uneventful reaction to today's Jobless Claims data tell
us? Quite a lot actually. Considering that last week's Claims data
was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 4:51 PM
Looking at today's trading activity in MBS in the context of recent
movement gives the impression that it was the sideways (but potentially
suppor...
Wed, Aug 21 2013, 11:29 AM
The overnight session was shockingly docile for Treasuries, with 10yr
yields staying super-glued to the 2.81-2.84 range before entering
domestic s...
Wed, Aug 21 2013, 7:00 AM
After The first two days of the week offered a fairly large sell-off and
an equally large rally for bond markets--all against the backdrop of NO da...
Wed, Aug 21 2013, 4:54 PM
The best thing that bond markets (and stocks too, for that matter)
could have hoped for from today's FOMC Minutes would have been a
fractured Fed ...
Tue, Aug 20 2013, 11:26 AM
Today's story is a fairly simple one. It relies on the prologue that
bond market momentum has been decidedly skewed toward the weak side for
at l...
Tue, Aug 20 2013, 7:06 AM
At least tomorrow morning there will be something substantive coming up
during the course of the day to discuss with anticipation. Until then,
we...
Tue, Aug 20 2013, 5:26 PM
Bond markets had a tremendously strong overnight session with solid
gains and big volume. Whether this had anything to do with the actual
events ...
Mon, Aug 19 2013, 11:24 AM
Against the backdrop of a silent data calendar, bond markets are on the
ropes. Both MBS and Treasuries have been grinding uncomfortably against
F...
Mon, Aug 19 2013, 7:29 AM
One of the most interesting things about last week was the phenomenon of
'status quo' data serving to inspire heavy selling in both stocks and
bon...
Mon, Aug 19 2013, 4:51 PM
Bond markets continued free-falling today, ostensibly searching for the
theoretical point at which a September 18th reduction in the Fed's asset
p...
Fri, Aug 16 2013, 9:00 PM
The balance of this week's economic data was unequivocally "not enough"
to remove the stench of September tapering from MBS and Treasuries. It
wa...
Fri, Aug 16 2013, 7:20 AM
Yesterday's post was generally a warning against viewing 2.74 as a 'ceiling' in 10yr yields ( read it here ).
That gives us the opportunity to disc...
Fri, Aug 16 2013, 2:23 PM
Please note the timestamp on the pricing snapshot below. This mid-day
recap can occasionally be delayed if we're working on alerts and
interactio...
Thu, Aug 15 2013, 7:14 AM
So far this week, Monday has shown us that bond markets were considering
getting back in the swing of things after a dull week past. Tuesday
conf...
Thu, Aug 15 2013, 4:54 PM
Bond markets continue to adhere to the notion that near term economic
data is fantastically important in honing in on a target date for
tapering. ...
Wed, Aug 14 2013, 12:38 PM
Today was well-scripted in the sense that it offered little by way of actionable data
compared to yesterday and tomorrow. Trading activity has been...
Wed, Aug 14 2013, 7:15 AM
Yesterday's sell-off was a bit of wake-up call for anyone lulled into
a false sense of security by last week's tepidity or their crystal
ball's t...
Wed, Aug 14 2013, 4:30 PM
In stark contrast to yesterday's session, volume and volatility were nowhere to be found today. MBS and Treasuries entered the domestic session right...
Tue, Aug 13 2013, 7:03 AM
Last week was one of those perfectly slow weeks that looked like it
would be slow ahead of time and didn't disappoint. It was also "Shark
Week" o...
MBS Market Alerts
