Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report Today's trading session was rather uneventful for bonds except for the fact that it resulted in the 6th straight intraday high in Treasury yields.  As discussed in the Day Ahead, this is right about the time that we begin to look for a technical correction simply due to probabilities of such streaks lasting more than 6 days.  Unfortunately for probability, this particular streak collides with big jobs report tomorrow.  Even though markets have seemed reluctant to react to econ data, the jobs report can always serve as a jumping off point for trading ideas and volatility.  Beyond that, the consensus forecast is arguably low based on the other available labor market data. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Jobless Claims 779 vs 830 f'cast 812 prev Labor Costs 6.8 vs 4.0 f'cast, -7.0 prev Productivity -4.8 vs -2.8 f'cast, 5.1 prev Factory Orders 1.1 vs 0.7 f'cast, 1.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:17 AM MBS are unchanged to start the day (+1 tick or 0.03) while Treasuries are about 1bp higher after mixed trading overnight.  No major market movers in play as bonds wait for tomorrow's NFP, fiscal stimulus news, and next week's Treasury auction supply.  09:29 AM 8:20am CME open brought bond weakness and that selling ran its course before the 8:30am econ data.  Since then, yields have corrected back toward unchanged levels, but 10yr is still up 1bp.  MBS are in slightly stronger territory.  Stocks are up about a quarter of a percent and trying to break intraday highs (in futures) at the 9:30am NYSE open. 01:50 PM Quiet morning after the initial correction back toward stronger levels.  Now a quiet afternoon with 10yr yield just shy of unchanged and UMBS 2.0 coupons up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-03 (103.09).

February 4, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Rob Chrisman Lock Desk, Credit, MLO, Ops Jobs; Underwriting, Pricing tools; DACA, URLA Changes; Primer on the Secondary Markets Making headlines is United Wholesale averaging $15 billion a month in production and earning total net income of $3.4 billion for 2020 , quite a change from the $415 million of net income in 2019. And over time, we change. In your 20s: “I fell ... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report Today's trading session was rather uneventful for bonds except for the fact that it resulted in the 6th straight intraday high in Treasury yields. ... (read more) Housing News CFPB's New Seasoning Rule is Already Showing Promise The Urban Institute (UI) has looked at a final mortgage rule issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in late 2020 which would provide a 3-year pathway to safe harbor for loans that are a rebuttable presumption or nonqualified mortga... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a different story. Granted, there haven't been any huge, dramatic moves, but today's bond market weakness ad... (read more) Housing News December Home Price Gains Shot Up 9% Annually CoreLogic reports that December saw yet another acceleration in home price increases. The company's Home Price Index (HPI) rose 9.2 percent on an annual basis. The increase in November was 8.2 percent. The month-over-month change, 1.1 percent, was al... (read more) Housing News Residential Construction Spending Grew by 11.8% in 2020 Public and privately funded construction spending ended 2020 with a 4.7 percent increase over spending in 2019. The U.S. Census Bureau said the combined outlays for the recent year was $1.430 trillion compared to 1.365 trillion the prior year. Reside... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.91% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.91% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.03 +0.22 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.03 +0.22 UMBS 6.0 101.66 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 100.10 +0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.45 +0.09 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:26PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2290 -0.0523 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.721 -0.029 5 YR Treasury 3.795 -0.040 7 YR Treasury 3.989 -0.047 10 YR Treasury 4.229 -0.052 30 YR Treasury 4.779 -0.052 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:26PM EST Latest Video Commodities expert explains why it's impossible to short squeeze silver Democrats move toward $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill without Republi... The Bond Report - 9am - February 04, 2021 U.S. weekly jobless claims total 779,000 vs. 830,000 estimate Around the Web CNBC Jobs growth likely rebounded in January, but the extent of the recovery depends on hotels and restaurants CNBC Fewer people may qualify for the $1,400 stimulus payments. Here's why Reuters U.S. Senate Democrats set for first step on road to new COVID-19 relief Reuters Wall St rises as focus turns to stimulus, corporate earnings Brookings Institution The critical role of workforce training in the labor market recovery CNBC Want to own an apartment building? Buy a distressed hotel for pennies on the dollar Reuters U.S. Senate Democrats prepare to push through Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 package CNBC Fed's Mester doesn't see policy changes coming from GameStop saga CNBC Jobless claims better than expected last week and lowest in two months Calculated Risk Blog January Vehicles Sales increased to 16.63 Million SAAR CNBC Treasury yields climb after better-than-expected jobs data CNBC Bank of England says banks will need six months to prepare for negative rates Reuters Yellen calls for 'acting now - and acting big' on pandemic relief

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