Delivered to over
70,000+ industry professionals
each day, the Daily Newsletter is the
definitive recap of the day's most
relevant mortgage and real estate news and data. View the latest Newsletter below.
View our most recent newsletter below, or use the date selector to view past newsletters.
With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times. With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor .
What happens after a break below 1.0% though? The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today. It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.
Such a move could be a blessing or a curse. If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August, a move to .97/.98 suggests a stronger possibility of another bounce, or at least another slow grind higher like the trading seen in Q4.
The Fed announcement comes out at 2pm and Powell's press conference begins at 2:30pm. As far as the Fed's current stance is concerned, we're more likely to see/hear market movers in the press conference, if at all. Markets want reassurance (again!) that the Fed isn't even talking about tapering its asset purchases yet.
MBS Commentary
|
|
With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times... (read more)
|
|
Rob Chrisman
|
|
Just a couple more weeks until my uncle sends me a text asking if I’ve seen these funny photos of Bernie Sanders , of which there are no shortage. There is, however, a shortage of houses out there for the 70+ million Millennials to buy, even if... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
The interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages originated in December reached an all-time low in ICE Mortgage Technology's (formerly Ellie Mae's) records, an average of 2.93 percent and a 4-basis point decline from the November rate. The company,... (read more)
|
|
Mortgage Rate Watch
|
|
What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but there are also bonds specific to the mortgage market. These are what groups of loans ultimately become... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
The annual increases in U.S. home prices is nearing dizzying levels. The November data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) crossed into double digits for the second consecutive month while the months numbers from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shi... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
Existing home sales resumed an upward trajectory in December. After drifting lower by 2.5 percent in November, breaking a five-month streak of gains , the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales in the last month of the year rose 0.7 p... (read more)
|
|
|
|
|