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Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. While today's job count was even bigger (+4.8 million versus 2.699m last month), it wasn't as far above the forecast consensus (1.8m gap versus 10.5m last month). But even that doesn't fully explain why bonds were able to get back to stronger levels a few hours later. Waiting on covid news!
Econ Data / Events
11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying
Nonfarm Payrolls 4.8m vs 3.0m f'cast, 2.699m prev
Unemployment rate 11.1 vs 12.3 f'cast , 13.3 prev
Jobless Claims 1.427m vs 1.355m f'cast , 1.482m prev
Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM Bonds broadly unchanged overnight despite mild-mannered rally in stocks. 10yr yields starting the day up 0.3bps at .679 and UMBS 2.0 coupons are up 1 tick (0.03) at 102-10 (102.31)
10:25 AM Most of the losses in Treasuries have been erased with 10s back down to .686 (up 1bp on the day). MBS are still outperforming and are currently at the highs of the day up 3 ticks (.09) at 102-12 (102.375).
MBS Commentary
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Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Lenders continue to count the piles of doubloons they booked during another record-breaking month; will July be another? M&A deals are still simmering out there, but when profits are “en fuego” and July is looking strong with full pip... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to be the case that loan scenarios with additional risk factors have NOT seen nearly as much improveme... (read more)
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Housing News
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Applications for both refinancing and purchase mortgages retreated last week , pulling the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA's) Market Composite Index lower for the second time in as many weeks. MBA said the index, a measure of application volume, d... (read more)
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Housing News
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Home prices continued to hold up on a national basis in April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7 percent annual gain in April, up from 4.6 percent in March. The ... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision along partisan lines, took a chunk out of the intentions the Dodd-Frank Act had for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) when it created it. The court ruled that the single-director structure of the age... (read more)
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