More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market.  Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed.  With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday, we're on the lookout for last week's linear, positive trend to face some resistance.  If we don't see any, it would speak volumes to market's comfort level in a narrow range near all-time lows. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:29 AM Initially flat overnight before following European yields higher at 3am.  Bonds calmed down a bit heading into domestic hours, but both Treasuries and MBS are slightly weaker now.  Stocks are up almost a percent to new record highs (S&P futures).   10:23 AM Bonds turned more decisively positive (if anything can be decisive in such a narrow overall range) after the 9:30am NYSE Open.  The timing and the correlation with slumping stocks made a clear case for a quick little rotation out of stocks and into bonds.  Both are bouncing back in the other direction now, but 10yr yields are still nearly a bp lower on the day and UMBS 2.0s are up nearly an eighth. 11:53 AM Fed buying operation saw big supply (11:30-11:50am) and MBS are falling back to the AM lows in its wake.  2.0 UMBS now down 2 ticks (0.06) on the day and more than an eighth from the highs.  Treasury selling isn't helping.

August 24, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.15%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% +0.13%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.11%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 24, 2020 Best Housing Market Since 2007, But There's a Catch Fri, Aug 21, 2020 5:18PM Several new reports confirm the housing market is soaring right now, but the headlines don't tell the whole story. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported July's existing home sales came in at an annual pace of 5.86 million homes. This crushed forecasts calling for 5.38 million, and demolished last month's reading of 4.70 million. To top it all off, we haven't seen a higher number since 2007! Great news, right? Actually, yes , this is great news. The home sales market is doing every bit as well as anyone could hope for given the circumstances. But visual takeaway on the ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.05% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.11 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.77% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.07% +0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/18 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.26% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/18 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.54 -0.04   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.07 +0.04   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.104 +0.023   3.706 4.780 MBS Live Recap: More Defensive But Not Without Hope Mon, Aug 24, 2020 3:49PM More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market.  Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed.  With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday, we're on the lookout for last week's linear, positive ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.46 -0.16 UMBS 5.0 99.54 -0.04 UMBS 5.5 101.07 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.50 -0.52 GNMA 5.0 99.75 -0.07 GNMA 5.5 100.90 +0.01 Pricing as of: 9/18 7:25PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.565 +0.001 5 YR Treasury 3.667 +0.011 7 YR Treasury 3.850 +0.011 10 YR Treasury 4.104 +0.023 30 YR Treasury 4.724 +0.036 Pricing as of: 9/18 7:25PM EST Other News Late-Stage Delinquencies are Surging, Especially Those With FHA Loans Fri, Aug 21, 2020 12:08PM Like the report from Black Knight earlier today, the second quarter National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic fading a bit in early delinquency numbers but surging within the more serious non-current categories. The overall rate of loans 30 or more days past due increased during the second qu... (read more) Existing Home Sales are Booming Fri, Aug 21, 2020 11:38AM Existing-home sales posted a second month of significant sales gains in July, building on a record 20.7 percent increase in June. The National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) said sales were at a seasonally adjusted 5.86 million units, a 24.7 percent month-over-month increase from 4.72 million and overturning the June record for monthly gains. Sales are ... (read more) Forbearances are Leveling Out, With Long-Term Delinquencies now a Concern Fri, Aug 21, 2020 11:29AM The financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are beginning to emerge and while it appears the crisis initially hit homeowners hard, the duration of the problem is murky. Short term delinquencies are declining, with fewer homeowners entering forbearance, while serious delinquencies are rising . We summarize the results from Black Knight's most recent weekly... (read more) Finance, AE, Ops, LO Jobs; Customer Service, Income Tools; Agency Updates Mon, Aug 24, 2020 9:21AM Winter is coming. I don’t need a new coat to walk from my bedroom through the kitchen and into the dining room to work on this commentary. Who is buying neckties or new dress shoes, or spending money renting cars, going to a theater, or having something dry cleaned? The sales volume of many things is tepid at best although online shopping and technolog... (read more) Latest Video Why economists are increasingly worried about a second recession Insurers are preparing for payouts as twin storms make landfall Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index comes in at 53.6 Existing home sales up 8.7% versus a year ago Around the Web CNBC More than half of states are now approved for the extra $300 per week in unemployment insurance CNBC Federal student loan payments have been deferred through December CNBC Small landlords dip into savings as their tenants struggle to pay rent CNBC Small landlords dip into savings as their tenants struggle to pay rent Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent Calculated Risk Blog Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July" NAHB Eye on Housing New York Led with Employment Gains in July Calculated Risk Blog Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Economists see a chance of a double-dip recession, survey shows NAR - Realtor.com Home Prices Are Still Shooting Up, but Is This a Bubble About To Burst? Calculated Risk Blog BLS: July Unemployment rates down in 30 states; 3 States at New Series Highs NAR - Realtor.com Existing-Home Sales Soar at a Record Pace in July as Americans Make Up for Lost Timebut Two Big Caveats Remain CNBC That extra $300 weekly unemployment benefits: Where states stand

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