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In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September. 10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they weren't able to hold all of those gains. Drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities served as the key market mover (and a great reminder that oil prices definitely don't always correlate with bond yields).
In the day ahead, we can ponder whether it was geopolitical unrest that truly sparked the correction or if it's something we would have seen yesterday simply because it was time to see it. The big bad correction had just gotten big enough to suggest it was getting to be that time, and the 1.80-1.94 range coincides with rates being in limbo between the strong August range and everything that came before (with the exception of the 1.5 days where rates quickly moved through the "in limbo" zone below).
Regardless of the justification for the corrective bounce, tomorrow's Fed events dominate the outlook. Whether we were correcting or continuing to move up an over 1.94%, the market will likely take its next big momentum cue from the Fed.
MBS Commentary
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In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September. 10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they wer... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates closed out their worst week since 2016 on Friday as the bond market underwent a classic correction after its best month since 2011. The bigger and more sustained a drop in rates, the bigger the potential correction. There were, however... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is anticipating an increase in new home sales in August. The organization's Builder Application Survey found the volume of applications to finance the purchase of newly construction homes was 33 percent higher t... (read more)
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Housing News
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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 1 point in September. Along with an upward revision to the August number, that carried the HMI to its highest level of the year . The September reading ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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As yet another example of a mortgage conference eating into a weekend, leading attendees to travel on a Friday or Saturday, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Regulatory Compliance Conference starts this Sunday. But the scheduling doesn’t... (read more)
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Housing News
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The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing industry. The Association says tariffs, which have impacted the price of appliances, certain ... (read more)
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