“Daylight savings time: Is the government cutting off the bottom of a blanket and sewing it to the top and saying, ‘See? Its longer now.’” Here in Austin, TX, Texas Women Mortgage Bankers’ Fall Social and TMBA’s Housing Summit agenda are full of speakers (not from, but…) discussing the U.S. Government’s role in housing and finance, as well as our Fed. “Rob, what do hear about Lisa Cook? Is she still on the Federal Reserve’s Board?” Yes, she is still with the Fed, and the Supreme Court will hear her case, assuming we all want to follow the law, and due process. The latest comes from The Yale Journal of Regulation in an article titled, “Are Pulte’s ‘Mortgage Fraud’ Investigations Legal?” M&A is also a topic, and the deals continue: last week Carrington Mortgage Services announced it was acquiring NY’s Reliance First Capital, a cash out refinance specialist, from Tiptree, Inc. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by ICE. As the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency and scalability, ICE is the technology of choice for the majority of industry participants, defining the future of homeownership. Today’s features an interview with AiCR’s Joe Furlong on how intelligent document automation with complex, high-volume files can help transform your operations.)

Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Is your team fully capitalizing on the self-employed borrower segment? Business owners continue to drive demand in the Non-QM space, yet many originators are missing the mark. On Thursday, November 13 at 1PM ET / 10AM PT, Complete Guide to Non-QM: A Deep Dive on Serving Business Owners, an NMP Webinar, will give executives and originators a clear view into what the top performers are doing differently. Non-QM mentors, Jeffrey Massotti of Carrington Wholesale and Kristopher Koepke at Brokers First Funding, will share what the most successful teams in the country are doing to position themselves for success with business owner clients. Learn how to understand the mindset of the business owner, identify untapped market opportunities, and master bank statement and P&L loans with confidence. If Non-QM growth is on your radar, this is a conversation your team should not miss. Reserve your access here while seats are still available.

“Strategic marketing ensuring your success. The sole purpose of our in-house marketing team is to make YOU and your referral partners the star of your marketplace. Strategic campaigns exclusively built to promote you, not the company. No cookie-cutter templates. We do the heavy lifting so you can build your business. We’ve been proving it for 60 years. Let us prove it to you today.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Correspondent and Wholesale Investor Products

A Pennsylvania borrower nearly lost their new $700K home when the buyer for their current property backed out, pushing their DTI over the limit. With Flyhomes Buy Before You Sell with Guaranteed Backup Contract, their LO secured a Flyhomes backup offer within 24 hours, allowing the underwriter to exclude the departing home’s debt and save the deal. With a tiered flat fee, this solution helps borrowers buy before they sell, with no loan required and available in all 50 states. Bonus: Now through Dec. 31, 1st lien loans get a reduced 1 percent origination fee. Over the past 10 years, Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers move into their next home. On average, LOs close 1.2 more loans per month with Buy Before You Sell, now available nationwide. Book a call today to learn more or sign up for the weekly open house for a live walkthrough and Q&A.

Work with LoanStream, a DBA of OCMBC, Inc., the #1 Non-QM Lender according to Scotsman Guide Rankings 2025! Investors go up to 8 units with our DSCR 5-8 Program and incredible program to expand your reach. All throughout November, Score big with our November Touchdown Specials, get up to 50 BPS Price Improvement on Closed End Seconds and our MaxOne DPA (FHA DPA) locked November 1–30th, 2025, including 50 BPS on Closed-End Seconds and 50 BPS on MaxONE DPA programs (excludes CalHFA). Don’t sit on the sidelines, run your business into the endzone with these winning deals from LoanStream! Learn more today! Check in with your Account Executive or visit here.

Black Friday comes early with The Infinite Savings Event: 0.25% Advantage Days! Brokers Advantage Mortgage is giving you more ways to fill your pipeline this holiday season with a 0.25% improvement to base pricing on all Infinite Series Non-QM Firsts and Closed-End Seconds (CES). Plus, lock eligible loans on or before Friday, November 14, to earn an additional 0.25% pricing special, doubling your advantage. Eligible loans include Owner-Occupied, Second Homes, and Non-Owner-Occupied properties with a minimum credit score of 680, ≤ 85% LTV/CLTV, DSCR ≥ 1.00, and a minimum 1-year PPP. Don’t wait for the holiday rush; your best deal is already here. Seize this early Black Friday opportunity and lock in your advantage today with Brokers Advantage and the Infinite Series — where infinite possibilities meet infinite savings. Visit here or call (833) 393-0547 to learn more.

“Rebrand announcement: AFR is now eLEND! AFR has officially rebranded under one unified identity: eLEND: reflecting our modern, tech-forward approach to mortgage lending and our recommitment to brokers, correspondent lenders, and their clients. Since our acquisition in February 2024, we’ve been moving full speed to enhance the mortgage experience by streamlining processes, expanding product offerings, and delivering innovative digital tools to make lending faster, smarter, and simpler. What’s new: AFR Wholesale is now eLEND TPO, built specifically for brokers and correspondent lenders to provide the programs, tools, and support needed to succeed in today’s market. What’s staying the same: Our trusted leadership, service-first values, competitive programs, and dedicated support remain unchanged. This rebrand is more than a new name, it’s a bold step forward designed for the future of mortgage lending. Visit elendtpo.com, 1-800-375-6071 or sales@elend.com. (NMLS 2826) Not yet a client – join the journey.”

Capital Markets

Rates set by market forces don’t move much. But, as was widely anticipated, the FOMC last week reduced the federal funds target rate range by 25-basis points to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, though the overall event was viewed as more hawkish than the market anticipated. In the committee’s statement, there were two dissents (one favoring no cut and another favoring a 50-basis points reduction) reflecting members’ diverging views on current economic conditions. The post-FOMC “bearish” repricing reflected a shift in the market’s understanding of the Fed’s reactionary nature, rather than the underlying trajectory of the real economy: 10-year yields finished a third consecutive week above 4.0 percent despite intermittently dropping below that threshold.

Fed Chair Powell pushed back against markets’ strong expectations for a December rate cut, emphasizing that it's “far from” certain, which preserves policy flexibility amid limited official data. You can view Powell’s press conference remarks as him pushing back against the market running away with a narrative ("another cut is imminent") he wasn’t on board with. Some viewed it as taking matters into his own hands, and some viewed it as a shot at the Republicans to get something done about the government ("open the government or you can kiss a December rate cut goodbye"). With no data to work with, Powell signaled he is content to maintain current policy. The market-implied odds of a December rate cut have slipped down to around 60 percent, versus 90 percent odds before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting last week.

Without official data due to the shutdown, policy makers must weigh the risks to inflation and the labor market with the limited data available. Despite caution from missing government reports, the Fed may still proceed with a cut if there is significant clear deterioration in the labor market. Upcoming private indicators, such as the ADP employment report, will play a larger-than-usual role, though early signals suggest continued weakness in labor market activity.

Put another way: while the Fed is going to need some reassurance that a rate cut is a prudent decision, it’s likely that the Committee will have sufficient data clarity to follow-through on another quarter-point rate cut when it reconvenes for its final meeting of the year.

The Federal Reserve’s changing balance sheet reduction plans, particularly the runoff of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS), could meaningfully influence short-term funding markets such as repo rates. As the Fed allows more MBS and agency debt to return to private hands, the increased supply may push up borrowing costs for transactions using that collateral.

Conversely, if the Fed slows its reduction of Treasury holdings, the added availability of Treasuries could relieve scarcity in repo markets and modestly lower Treasury-backed repo rates. Essentially, these balance sheet adjustments alter the relative supply and demand for different types of collateral, reshaping pricing dynamics across short-term funding markets.

This week’s economic calendar would have included the October jobs report on Friday, but it will be delayed due to the government shutdown along with construction spending, the trade deficit, factory orders, jobless claims, productivity/unit labor costs, and wholesale inventories (ugh). That leaves PMIs, ADP employment, Challenger job cuts, Michigan sentiment, and consumer credit as the reports set for actual release. Treasury supply consists of just T-bills, though Fedspeak picks up after last week’s FOMC decision.

Outside of the Fed, markets will digest the latest central bank decisions from the RBA, Riksbank, BoE, and Norges Bank, with current odds favoring no change for all four. Regarding MBS, Agency prepayments will be released after Thursday’s close and into the evening and Class A net out is on Friday.

Today’s economic calendar kicks off later this morning with October manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and ISM. The only other event(s) of note will be remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Governor Cook. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices little changed from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.58, and the 10-year yielding 4.09 after closing last week at 4.10 percent, up 10-basis points over the course of last week, but down 5-basis points from where it began October.