As an industry, we tend to care about interest rates, especially mortgage rates. (A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”) But there is a group of people much less sensitive to rates and represent competition to lenders. All-cash home purchases have remained structurally elevated since early 2023, averaging 28 percent of existing home sales, well above the post-2015 norm of 23 percent, and consistently exceeding that benchmark since late 2022. Affluent households, relocating homeowners cashing out of higher-cost markets, investors, and increasingly ordinary savers primarily make up this group, underscoring how accumulated equity and liquidity are reshaping housing demand. While cash activity is far less prevalent in new home sales (largely due to higher price points) both segments have still seen above-trend cash buying in recent years. For housing finance markets, the implications are significant: elevated cash transactions effectively bypass mortgage origination, reducing the flow of loans into the Agency mortgage-backed securities market. Using current run rates, this translates into roughly 1.2 million annual home purchases (or about $385 billion in potential mortgage issuance) being removed from the system, tightening supply, and reinforcing technical support for mortgage spreads even as overall housing activity remains constrained. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with CI&T’s Tim Von Kaenel on building, integrating, and optimizing technology to drive differentiation, modernize operations, and navigate an increasingly complex and fast-evolving digital landscape.

Lender and Broker Products and Services

What if your rate forecast could answer “what changes if” before the market moves? Meet Optimal Blue’s Virtual Economist, the mortgage industry’s first AI- and machine-learning-powered tool for scenario-based forecasting of rates and lock volume, blending public economic signals with proprietary Optimal Blue data to help produce explainable, stress-tested outlooks tied to OBMMI, the benchmark average locked rate across the platform. Test scenarios such as Fed cuts, inflation surprises, or oil above $90 to see how rates and production plans may change. With Optimal Blue’s Virtual Economist, teams can challenge assumptions, align faster, and plan with more confidence. Ask questions by voice or text and apply the insights to pricing, budgeting, and strategy. Virtual Economist is in beta and coming soon for general availability. Learn more today, and sign up to be notified at release.

Every year the mortgage industry adds more data, more alerts, and more technology. But real progress is not about adding more. It is about understanding what matters. The Xactus360 Intelligent Verification PlatformSM helps lenders identify the right data at the right time, giving teams a clearer view of borrower information across the mortgage lifecycle. Because better decisions start with recognizing the signal within the data. See how lenders are cutting through the noise. Learn more here.

“Bayview's Silver Hill Capital just enhanced its Agency Investor Plus product to now offer up to 90 percent LTV on investor properties, giving borrowers the ability to put less money down while helping originators win more loans. Agency Investor Plus is an Agency Automated Underwrite that offers 90 percent LTV, vest in an LLC, 10+ properties, and IO and prepayment options. Sign up for an upcoming training course on May 21st from 2-3PM EST highlighting our AIP product enhancements. We’ll be hosting meetings for the upcoming MBA Annual at the W Hotel in Times Square from May 17–19. Schedule time with our team to connect and explore new opportunities for your business.”

Spring home-buying season may be doing more than warming up demand. It could be firming prices, too. According to the latest First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index (HPI) Report, improving affordability is helping bring buyers back into the market. As First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming explains, “Monthly price appreciation reached the strongest pace in nearly a year as the improved affordability and emerging demand for the spring home-buying season translates into renewed momentum and a firmer pricing environment.” The HPI provides timely, data-driven insights into home price trends at the national, state, and CBSA levels, helping you stay ahead of shifting market conditions. Download the full report to see where prices may be headed next.

MortgageFlex is rolling out a powerful set of servicing enhancements designed to streamline default, bankruptcy, payment, and foreclosure operations. New Bankruptcy UI updates and enhanced BK payment handling give servicers clearer controls and borrower‑friendly payment options, including ACH within the portal. Batch Check Printing introduces bulk refund check generation, while Monthly FC Statements automate creation and delivery of foreclosure statements. Expanded API capabilities now support seamless Loan Import and Foreclosure Import. Foreclosure workflows gain major upgrades with added AITNO/VITNO fields, attorney contact data, HOLD REASON TRACKING, and expanded close‑reason options for cleaner audit trails. Finally, Paymentus integration using the API interface adds another secure ACH payment channel, strengthening borrower self‑service and operational efficiency. To learn more, contact our Chief Revenue Officer, John McCrea.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

AI Regulation Webinar

Lenders One’s “Governing AI in Mortgage Webinar” (today at 2PM ET/11AM PT) addresses “AI is moving fast, and regulation is moving even faster. Are you ready?” Lenders One invites the mortgage industry to register free for today’s Governing AI in Mortgage: What Lenders Need to Know in 2026, a webinar on navigating AI responsibly and compliantly. Matt VanFossen, CMB, CEO of Mortgage Automation Technologies, will break down AI governance, state‑level legislation impacting lenders nationwide, and the real risks of using public AI tools with live loan data. Attendees will also see a live demo of BIG AI, the industry’s first open‑source AI governance framework with built‑in compliance and no coding required. Bonus: All registrants receive a complimentary AI Governance Policy & Procedure Build‑Out Guide. Open to lenders, loan officers, operations, compliance, and mortgage professionals, industry‑wide. Register for free now.

Thought Leadership and Insights

AI adoption in mortgage is moving fast, but Secure Insight's Andrew Liput raises a more uncomfortable question: what happens when the output looks right, but isn’t? With real examples already costing companies money and credibility, he makes the case that hallucinations are not rare glitches but a risk quietly building inside everyday workflows. The full piece is a sharp reminder that speed without skepticism can get expensive.

STRATMOR’s latest Insights Report makes a compelling case: AI isn’t here to replace your mortgage team — it’s here to elevate it. In “AI: The GOAT of Your New Mortgage Dream Team,” Senior Advisor Sue Woodard explores how lenders can pair human expertise with AI-driven capabilities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance the borrower experience.

The opportunity is real. AI is already transforming document processing, workflow automation, and decision support — helping lenders move faster and with greater accuracy while freeing up teams to focus on what matters most: relationships. But there’s a catch. Many lenders are still experimenting without a clear strategy, leaving value on the table. The takeaway? AI works best as a teammate, not a takeover. The winners will be those who integrate it thoughtfully, building a smarter, more balanced “dream team” that combines technology and human insight to drive real results. Read the full April Insights Report.

Capital Markets

With ongoing geopolitical conflict keeping MBS spreads on edge and uncertainty around Fed leadership adding a new layer of unpredictability to rate forecasts, secondary marketing teams can't afford to operate on outdated workflows or incomplete data. On May 5th at 10AM PT, MCT is hosting the Q1 2026 edition of its MCTlive! Release Notes Webinar, a live walkthrough of the latest platform innovations built to help lenders execute with more precision. Moderated by Steve Pawlowski, Managing Director and Head of Technology Solutions at MCT, the session will feature live demonstrations of new capabilities across secondary marketing operations, including smarter pricing tools, improved best execution functionality, enhanced data visibility, and streamlined workflows designed to reduce friction and sharpen decision-making. Whether you're looking to tighten hedge execution or gain better real-time pipeline visibility, this is a practical look at how MCT's Q1 releases translate to operational results. Register for the webinar to reserve your seat.

The meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee garner the headlines (yesterday’s FOMC Statement essentially said “steady as she goes. Nothing to see here.” Though there were four dissents to the decision, one to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and three to remove the “easing bias” in the statement.), but economists watch Fed speeches very closely as well. In remarks in New York City on Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve President Williams discussed the regional and U.S. economies, as well as how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is navigating through uncertainty to balance the risks to achieving its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. He emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee must steer policy through an unusually uncertain environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, and mixed economic signals.

While the U.S. economy has remained broadly resilient (with solid consumer spending, steady business investment, and strong regional housing demand in areas like New York) data presents a more complicated picture beneath the surface. The labor market appears stable by traditional measures such as unemployment and payroll growth, yet softer indicators suggest declining confidence and slower hiring, particularly for job seekers. Concurrently, inflation is being pulled in different directions: tariffs and rising energy prices are pushing it higher, while underlying trends and anchored expectations suggest longer-term pressures remain contained. As a quick aside, Fed Chairman Powell revealed yesterday that he will remain on the Board of Governors for some time after his term as Chairman ends on May 15.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with Advance Q1 GDP (2.0 percent versus 2.1 percent expectations and a prior reading of 0.5 percent), March Personal Income (0.6 percent versus 0.4 percent expectations and a prior reading of -0.1 percent), Personal Spending (0.9 percent versus 0.4 percent expectations and a prior reading of 0.5 percent), PCE Prices (up 0.7 percent month-over-month), Core PCE Prices (0.3 percent) Q1 Employment Cost Index (0.9 percent), weekly Initial Claims (189k), and Continuing Claims (1.785 million). Later today brings April Chicago PMI. Additionally, the Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged at 3.75 percent today, as expected. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices a touch better than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.90, and the 10-year yielding 4.40 after closing yesterday at 4.42 percent.