Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process.  In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that the Fed might be more or less likely to cut rates in September.  The Fed attempts to balance unemployment and inflation, in not so many words. Today's CPI showed that inflation has yet to fall decisively enough to guarantee a rate cut. On the other hand, it didn't rise enough to take a rate cut off the table. In short, CPI was mixed. Some components showed tariff impacts and a costlier services sector. Other components showed ongoing softening in major categories such as housing-related expenses. The odds of a Fed rate cut actually improved for September. Shorter-term bonds also improved (no surprise, as they are highly correlated with Fed rate expectations).  But longer-term bonds (which includes the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) held steady.  When this is the case, mortgage rates will almost always be roughly unchanged on the day.

August 12, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% +0.08%   5.99% 6.88% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.05%   5.55% 6.25% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% +0.00%   6.1% 6.97% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 12, 2025 Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report Tue, Aug 12, 2025 3:50PM Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process.  In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that t... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.15% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.24% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.17% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.52% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.60% +0.03 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% +0.06 0.68 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.66% 0.00 0.54 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.00 -0.44   96.76 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.08 -0.37   98.96 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.496 +0.054   3.948 4.668 Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components Tue, Aug 12, 2025 9:20AM There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals: The unrounded monthly core was 0.322 versus the median big bank forecast at 0.31 Supercore (core CP... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 95.62 -0.46 UMBS 5.0 98.00 -0.44 UMBS 5.5 100.08 -0.37 GNMA 4.5 95.96 -0.40 GNMA 5.0 98.48 -0.49 GNMA 5.5 100.29 -0.46 Pricing as of: 6/17 9:28PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.185 +0.127 5 YR Treasury 4.267 +0.109 7 YR Treasury 4.371 +0.078 10 YR Treasury 4.496 +0.054 30 YR Treasury 4.931 -0.013 Pricing as of: 6/17 9:28PM EST Other News Variable Rate HELOC, Fraud, Marketing Tools; Educate Your Borrowers; Inflation Data as Expected Tue, Aug 12, 2025 11:46AM “Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, talk in the hallways is about memories of how, in the past, just because the Fed changes short-term rates doesn’t mean long-term rates move. Put another way, short-te... (read more) Latest Video Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Jim Bullard: The Fed could cut 100 basis points ... Kansas City Fed president: Modestly restrictive policy stance remains appro... Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff ... White House says the plan is for BLS to put out monthly reports Around the Web Marketwatch Key inflation rate shows biggest rise in 6 months, CPI shows, but Fed rate cut still appears in play CNBC Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries CNBC Quantum computing could be commercial real estates next big tailwind Eye on Housing Student Loan Balances Rise Calculated Risk Blog August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Reuters Fed structure may be in flux, not just rates Calculated Risk Blog Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in July CNBC Trump extends China tariff deadline by 90 days CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors look ahead to key inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Housing August 11th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.8% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels Eye on Housing Market Share for Modular and Other Non-Site Built Housing in 2024 Eye on Housing Foundation Types in 2024: Slabs Continue to Rise, Crawl Spaces Decline CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors await key inflation print, assess U.S.-China trade truce

© 2026  Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: [recipientemail]. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.