(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consistent with a market that didn't have time to process the sort of knee-jerk reaction one would expect from headlines like Moody's US credit rating downgrade. Most of the rest of the domestic session was consistent with the type of reversal one might expect after a knee-jerk reaction to news that wasn't really that newsworthy. As has been exhaustively covered, 2 of the other big 3 ratings agencies had long since taken the US credit rating down a peg, thus limiting the true significance of Friday's news. Bonds ended the day weaker than they were at 3pm last Friday (before the Moody's news), but slightly stronger vs the 5pm levels (15 minutes after the Moody's news). Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Sharply weaker overnight as Moody's reaction extends overseas.  MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 7.3bps at 4.552 10:48 AM Making progress after sellers got their fill.  MBS down only an eighth and 10yr up only 2bps at 4.5 02:01 PM Now moving into positive territory with MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.481

May 19, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 19, 2025 Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mon, May 19, 2025 3:05PM Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S.  News of the downgrade broke with only minutes left in Friday's market/business day, so most of the response played out when global markets opened again late last night. The initial reaction involved stock prices moving lower and bond yields moving higher (which can also be characterized as bond market weakness/losses/etc). In general, bond market weakness coincides with higher mortgage rates and this morning was no exception.  Most mortgage lenders are decidin... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 (Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness Mon, May 19, 2025 3:51PM (Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consistent with a market that didn't have time to process the sort of knee-jerk reaction one would expect from headlines like Moody's US credit rating downgrade. Most of the rest of the domestic session was consistent w... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:25AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:25AM EST Other News POS, LOS, HELOC, Legal Products; IMB Per Loan is Still a Loss; Lower Rates vs. Debt and Inflation Mon, May 19, 2025 11:22AM People who don’t attend the National Secondary here in Manhattan wonder what happens behind the scenes. Here you go. We had the MCT elevator failure last night, inconveniencing a carload of mortgage folks between floors. There is definitely an older crowd at the conference. I was walking by one fellow who had asked a non-QM rep for her number, and she replie... (read more) Latest Video 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises above 7% Raphael Bostic: Debt downgrade could ripple through the economy Moody's strips U.S. of top rating, downgrades sovereign credit rating to Aa... Atlanta Fed President Bostic: Leaning towards one rate cut this year Around the Web CNBC Mortgage rates cross back over 7% after U.S. credit downgrade CNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent on tariffs, expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse PR Newswire The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Plunged in April Forex Live More signs that the US-Japan trade agreement is on ice Calculated Risk Blog "How do you grade the Spring housing market?" CNBC Fed's Bostic says he's 'leaning' toward just one rate cut this year Calculated Risk Blog Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year Eye on Housing Flat Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent CNBC 30-year Treasury passes 5% after Moody's downgrades U.S. credit rating Eye on Housing Flat Custom Home Building Trends CNBC Moody's downgrades United States credit rating on increase in government debt CNBC Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2%

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