It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully, it was mostly the good kind. The week got off to a slightly stronger start with Monday's only major rate news being updated borrowing estimates from the Treasury Department.  Why would such a thing matter?  Treasuries largely dictate day to day interest rate momentum in the U.S. because they are abundant, simple, and as close to risk-free as it gets.  As such, Treasuries are the universal yardstick for all other debt in the U.S., including MBS, the mortgage-backed securities that have the most direct impact on mortgage rates.  This is why Treasury yields and mortgage rates correlate so well over time. Treasuries can take cues from several sources.  One of the biggest is the change in the outright level of supply.  In other words, how much more debt is the U.S. government issuing in the upcoming quarter?  If that number is higher than expected, it puts upward pressure on rates. Monday's news from Treasury was fairly palatable and roughly in line with market expectations, which allowed rates to stay steady. Things changed on Tuesday when the Employment Cost Index (ECI) data came out.  This is one of several reports that the Fed has mentioned as being important to the rate outlook recently.  Higher numbers mean higher rates, all other things being equal.  This week's installment showed Q1 costs at 1.2, up from 0.9 in Q4 and well above the market consensus of 1.0.  Rates hit the highest levels of the week as a result, both in terms of Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

May 3, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 3, 2024 Rates End Week at Lowest levels since April 9th Fri, May 3, 2024 5:14PM It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully, it was mostly the good kind. The week got off to a slightly stronger start with Monday's only major rate news being updated borrowing estimates from the Treasury Department.  Why would such a thing matter?  Treasuries largely dictate day to day interest rate momentum in the U.S. because they are abundant, simple, and as close to risk-free as it gets.  As such, Treasuries are the unive... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Stronger Start For Bonds After Cooler Jobs Report Fri, May 3, 2024 12:46PM On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market.  Depending on the context, it still is.  But in today's case, it's much lower than the market expected and not a high enough number to justify the 4.6+ 10yr yields seen yesterday.  Bonds rallied instantly when the news printed, but one... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:21PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:21PM EST Other News Fee Collection, S&D Products; Webinars and Training; Rates Ease on NFP Miss Fri, May 3, 2024 11:57AM When camping here at Yosemite National Park*, you quickly realize that there is one basic product here that has never changed: nature. Mortgage products, however, are always shifting and changing. How’s your adjustable-rate mortgage offering, and training, for LOs? The ARM share of applications last week reached nearly 8 percent. Builder business is another ... (read more) Latest Video Fed will be happy with jobs report which showed cooling in employment, says... U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while un... Inflation has become 'incredibly unpredictable', says Roger Ferguson Insurance's impact on inflation Around the Web cnbc U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9% Marketwatch Fed’s Bowman says she’s still willing to raise rates Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak Marketwatch ISM service-sector gauge weakens sharply in April FXStreet Fed's Goolsbee: Current employment numbers are solid Calculated Risk Blog Comments on April Employment Report Market Watch Fed still trying to assess if recent hot inflation readings mean economy is overheating, Goolsbee says Marketwatch Jobless claims inch up to 208,000. Layoffs still extremely low. Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Update on Mortgage Rates and Spreads and also New / Renewal Rents Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 33.3% YoY; New Listings Up 10.4% YoY Marketwatch Options traders 'did not take Powell completely at his word' on unlikely chance of a rate hike CNBC Treasury yields inch higher ahead of April jobs report Marketwatch May is usually a good time to buy Treasurys. Why investors may want to disregard this seasonal noise.

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