The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.  This week's data was more of an afterthought compared to last week's. The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that's not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields.  The latter saw a bit more volatility this week. Monday's Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately.  Tuesday's data was consequential, but it was followed by a speech in which Fed Chair Powell had an opportunity to provide some updated thoughts on the rate outlook.  After all, the Fed hadn't seen the most recent CPI data (and several other strong reports) at the time the last round of rate projections came out in March. As the market expected, the tone is evolving.  While Powell and the Fed repeat that the rate path depends on economic data, it's no surprise to see recent comments acknowledging a surprising amount of strength in the recent data.  Stronger data means fewer rate cuts.  Powell went as far as saying there was new uncertainty as to whether the Fed will even be able to cut in 2024. Two days later, NY Fed President John Williams struck similar tone.  Just last week, he had pushed back on the CPI data, saying the Fed wasn't surprised by setbacks in the inflation data.  This week's comments did more to acknowledge the other side of data dependency.  Specifically, Williams said the Fed could hike again if the data called for it.  

April 19, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 19, 2024 The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts Fri, Apr 19, 2024 4:30PM The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.  This week's data was more of an afterthought compared to last week's. The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that's not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields.  The latter saw a bit more volatility this week. Monday's Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately.  Tuesday's data was consequential, but i... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Gradually Pulling Back From Flight to Safety Bid Overnight Fri, Apr 19, 2024 10:06AM The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between Iran and Israel.  There have been plenty of "increased hostility" headlines this week that have not had much impact.  These were different because the initial newswires played up the risk to Iran's nuc... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:20AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:20AM EST Other News Cybersecurity, TPO, Verification Tools; Tech Tracking Whereabouts; Why Rates Are Where They Are Fri, Apr 19, 2024 11:33AM It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bringing my son Robbie to work, who, as I write this, is pedaling from Chicago to New York and bunked down last night in Union Home’s Bill Cosgrove’s humble abode.) I do not track his exact whereabouts, but we all k... (read more) Latest Video Don't expect the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securit... UBS: The Fed will implement its first rate cut in September December is 'closest possible date' for potential Fed cut, says Wells Fargo... Fed will keep rates higher longer: Ed Yardeni Around the Web CNBC Feds Goolsbee says more sniffing may be needed before rate cuts CNBC Mortgage rates are now at the highest level of the year, and could go even higher Marketwatch Amex sees 7% boost in card spending as profit crushes estimates Reuters Fed policy on hold because of 'stalled' progress on inflation, Goolsbee says Marketwatch Leading index for U.S. economy retreats again in March Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March Marketwatch Treasury yields drop in muted flight to quality after Israel retaliation Marketwatch D.R. Horton's stock rallies as limited home supply boosts profit and sales CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors weigh economic data, Fed comments CNBC Israel and Iran: All-out war, or measured retaliation? CNBC Israel carries out limited strike against Iran, source says

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