In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory.  The average lender moved from quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates near 3 month highs yesterday to the lowest levels of the week today.  The disclaimer is that this says more about the narrowness of the recent range than the ground covered. Another disclaimer is that you may well encounter mortgage rate headlines that say something completely different today.  This would almost certainly be due to Freddie Mac's weekly survey number rising to the highest levels in more than 2 months.  Freddie's survey is an average of the 5 days ending yesterday, nor does it account for points or a few other idiosyncrasies that can cause it to deviate from the reality in the trenches.   That reality is a conventional 30yr fixed rate that remains in the low 7% range for top tier scenarios.  If someone were to pay discount points or receive a relatively more aggressive quote, the high 6% range isn't out of the question.  It's just not "average."  Today's improvement was ostensibly driven by the bond market's reaction to hotly anticipated inflation data.  There is indeed a case to be made that the as-expected reading on PCE inflation helped rates recover today, but other economic data was also helpful (jobless claims and Chicago PMI). Ultimately, today's data is not what the market is truly waiting for.  The most important reports hit next week, culminating with Friday's big jobs report.  The following week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at least as important.  More than anything, those two reports will shape the dialogue in financial markets and the Fed meeting that takes place the week after CPI.

February 29, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Feb 29, 2024 Lowest Mortgage Rates This Week After Key Inflation Data Thu, Feb 29, 2024 4:05PM In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory.  The average lender moved from quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates near 3 month highs yesterday to the lowest levels of the week today.  The disclaimer is that this says more about the narrowness of the recent range than the ground covered. Another disclaimer is that you may well encounter mortgage rate headlines that say something completely different today.  This would almost certainly be due to Freddie Mac's weekly survey number ris... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Decent Reaction to Econ Data, and Not Just PCE Thu, Feb 29, 2024 10:44AM Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January.  In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and anticipation immediately following the last CPI on Feb 13.  That said, it only deserved focus because it was the best stop-gap data option between CPI and the next NFP on March 8th.  Today, it is ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 11:03AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 11:03AM EST Other News TBA Pricing, Delegated Correspondent, Servicing Products; STRATMOR and Comp Thu, Feb 29, 2024 11:33AM Welcome to February 29; The 366th day is added to keep the calendar year synchronized with the astronomical year or seasonal year. What do astronomers know that we don’t? In general, what do “they” know that we don’t? Recall when Wells Fargo left correspondent, and other correspondent investors wondered the same thing. Now Rocket Companies will shut down Roc... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage rates went to 8% so quick 'it reset the customer's mind': Taylor M... Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner: Don't expect a June rate cut to be 'bak... Wells Fargo's Jay Bryson talks what January's core PCE data could mean for ... Why China, Japan and the Fed are shaking up the $26 trillion U.S. bond mark... Around the Web Reuters Fed rate cut seen on track for June even as inflation bumps up CNBC 36% of homebuyers and sellers dont know they can negotiate real estate agent fees. Heres how to do it CNBC Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago Reuters Fed's Bostic: today's inflation data shows path down will be bumpy forexlive SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: Fed policy is in a good place. Fed can cut if needed Reuters Fed's Goolsbee: policy 'restrictive,' more disinflation likely Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.9% in January; Down 8.8% Year-over-year forexlive NY Fed Pres. Williams: 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 reasonable for Fed members to debate Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 215,000 Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.1% YoY in January CNBC U.S. Treasury yields inch higher ahead of Fed-favored inflation measure Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas January 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 3% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 9% Fannie Mae Expert Panel Upgrades Home Price Growth Outlook, Cites Supply Constraints and Lower Mortgage Rates

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