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Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easiest scapegoat being the extra strong Consumer Sentiment number (72.6 vs 65.5 f'cast). 10yr yields remained below yesterday's highs, and although MBS prices were lower than yesterday's, they'd outperformed Treasuries earlier in the week. In short, most of the week's gains remain intact. In fact, considering it was a summertime Friday with super strong data after 4 straight days of gains that took bonds into overbought territory in the short term, one might consider a 6bp bump to 10yr yields and a 3/8ths of a point loss in MBS to be a victory, of sorts.
Econ Data / Events
Consumer Sentiment
72.6 vs65.5 f'cast, 64.4 prev
Sentiment, Current Situation
77.5 vs 70.4 f'cast, 69.0 prev
Inflation expectations
1yr - 3.4 vs 3.3 f'cast
5yr - 3.1 vs 3.1 f'cast
Market Movement Recap
10:05 AM Modestly weaker all morning with sharper selling after sentiment data. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up roughly 4bps.
01:02 PM Additional weakness into the PM hours, but stabilizing now and recovering. 10yr at 3.81. MBS down only a quarter.
04:05 PM Weakest levels of the day in 10s (up 6 bps at 3.827) and down 3/8ths in MBS (not quite weakest levels of the day).
MBS Commentary
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Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easiest scapegoat being the extra strong Consumer Sentiment number (72.6 vs 65.5 f'cast). 10yr yields rema... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation data showed prices falling faster than expected. Rates responded with a full recovery despite giving u... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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“If they raise the interest rates one more time, you're going to hear Janet Yellen.” Much of the talk in the hallways here at the California Association of Mortgage Professionals event near San Francisco revolves around the Federal Reserve likely rai... (read more)
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