Earnings Season in Full Swing as Bonds Hold Range Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond market?  Well, now you have.  In an apparent mystery move before the start of the domestic session, stocks and bond yields dropped in unison.  It wasn't the biggest move ever, but it was abrupt enough to suggest discrete motivation.  The only suspect at the scene of the crime?  Ferrari earnings!  What's the takeaway?  Simply put: earnings season is in full swing.  Stock/bond correlation has increased, and could continue to be a factor for small-scale volatility in a week where the dominant focus remains on Friday's jobs report. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Market Movement Recap 08:12 AM Overnight session began weaker (and quiet, with much of Asia out on holidays this week).  EU yields were modestly higher.  Treasuries followed, but rallied back at 7:45am as stocks tanked, apparently on Ferrari earnings.  10yr yields unchanged at 1.603.  MBS nearly unchanged at 103-24 (103.75). 10:04 AM More stock/bond correlation at the 9:30am NYSE open.  10yr yields now down 3.5bps on the day to 1.564.  UMBS 2.5 and 2.0s both up more than an eighth. 11:20 AM Quick but relatively small pop higher in yields after Yellen comments (more here).  Supportive bounce already kicking in.  MBS back to unchanged levels.  10yr yields still slightly lower on the day, but 2 bps off the previous lows. 03:04 PM Super sideways all afternoon after the Yellen-inspired correction traveled another 2bp higher in 10yr yields (now unchanged on the day).  UMBS 2.5 coupons didn't lose much more ground and are also unchanged.

May 4, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 4, 2021 Mortgage Rates Recover After Some Morning Drama Thu, Apr 29, 2021 4:19PM Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Virtually every lender began the day with slightly higher rates, but most offered mid-day improvements in response to market conditions. As always, worth remembering that when we talk about "rates" moving higher or lower on almost any given day, the average mortgage borrower will not be seeing an actual change in their " note rate " (the rate at the top of a mortgage/promissory "note"). But note rates only comprise one side of the mortgage rate equation. That's because the cost of borrowing also depends on any upfront costs required by ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 +0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.53 +0.05   99.66 102.53 10 YR Treasury 4.048 -0.039   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Mostly Sideways, Waiting on Bigger Data; Did Ferrari Move Markets? Tue, May 4, 2021 4:01PM Earnings Season in Full Swing as Bonds Hold Range Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond market?  Well, now you have.  In an apparent mystery move before the start of the domestic session, stocks and bond yields dropped in unison.  It wasn't the biggest move ever, but it was abrupt enough... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.75 +0.28 UMBS 5.5 101.25 +0.13 UMBS 6.0 102.53 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.05 +0.22 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.13 -0.01 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:38PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.494 -0.024 5 YR Treasury 3.567 -0.022 7 YR Treasury 3.772 -0.029 10 YR Treasury 4.043 -0.044 30 YR Treasury 4.687 -0.082 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:38PM EST Other News For Loan Performance, Good News Across the Board Mon, May 3, 2021 12:42PM Black Knight's "first look" at March loan performance data explored the somewhat traditional dip in delinquencies each March due to calendar events like the arrival of tax refunds and the decline of winter utility bills. That was amplified this past March by a rebounding economy and labor market, low interest rates, $378 billion in stimulus payments, and tha... (read more) Fannie/Freddie Income and Net Worth Increased in Q1 Mon, May 3, 2021 12:18PM Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported improved income during the first quarter of 2021. Fannie Mae said its net income increased from $4.57 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to $4.99 while Freddie Mac reported a net of $2.77 billion and comprehensive income of $2.38 billion, down slightly for the quarter but significantly higher than a year earlier. F... (read more) Refinance Loans Continue to Dominate Freddie Mac's Volume Fri, Apr 30, 2021 10:55AM Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 27.2 percent in March compared to a 17.7 percent gain in February. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.927 trillion compared to $2.882 trillion the prior month and $2.404 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances totaled $142.465 billi... (read more) Processing, MLO Jobs; Warehouse, Marketing, eClose, Efficiency Tools; Disaster Updates Tue, May 4, 2021 10:30AM Most other countries construct homes out of concrete, stone, steel, or brick, but here in the good ol’ USA we use wood. A renewable resource, right? I mention this because lumber prices, which the government doesn’t control (yet) have risen more than 300% year over year , hit another high on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, and contributed t... (read more) Latest Video Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen said Fed may have to raise rates — Here's what i... Yellen: Interest rates may need to rise modestly How Biden's plan to tax real estate investors could affect the industry March factory orders reported at 1.1% vs 1.8% estimated Around the Web CNBC Insana: Yellen is right to hint that higher rates are on the horizon Calculated Risk Blog U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Sharply Year-over-year in April freddiemac.gcs-web.com Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for March 2021 NY Fed New York Fed purchases $1.734 billion in Treasurycoupons CFPB CFPB Issues Reports Detailing Mortgage Borrowers' Continuing COVID-19 Challenges CNBC Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates may have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit Increased to $74.4 Billion in March CNBC Treasury yields rise as economic reopening continues Reuters Most COVID business capacity limits to end in New York region on May 19 CFPB Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Federal Trade Commission Put Nation's Largest Landlords on Notice About Tenants' Pandem... Reuters NY Fed's Williams says strong growth not enough to affect monetary policy Reuters Fed's Powell says economic recovery clouded by racial, education gaps Calculated Risk Blog Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Increased Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans

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