Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far.  The move has surprised more than a few market participants.  To be sure, the pace of selling doesn't seem to fit with the economic reality at first glance.  Moreover, the higher yields have gone, the more expectations have increased for a technical correction.  In other words, we have to find a ceiling soon, even if it's only temporary.  It looked like we found that ceiling in the middle of last week, but Friday saw yields break to new highs.  Now as the new week begins, we have more new highs (overnight) and more new hope for a ceiling bounce as bonds are rallying early. On the data front, this week's headliners include Durable Goods, Core PCE, and the 5/7yr Treasury auctions.  With the exception of Wednesday's 5yr auction, all of that happens on the last 2 days of the week.  Incidentally, those are also the last 2 trading days of the month.  That means we could see a glut of trading momentum in one direction or the other, depending on how the rest of the week trades and how much "month-end" trading is left to be done.  

February 22, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Feb 22, 2021 Time to Wake Up To The New Mortgage Rate Reality Fri, Feb 19, 2021 5:54PM There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy to get lulled into a false sense of low-rate security, but it's time to wake up. Actually, the alarm has been going off for a while now. Previous posts pointed out the disconnect between the bond market and mortgage rates on multiple occasions in 2020. Near the end of the year, we warned against complacency in no unspecific terms . Following the Geo... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.15 -0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.46 -0.08   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.042   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Week Ahead: Battle to Find a Rate Ceiling Continues Mon, Feb 22, 2021 10:15AM Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far.  The move has surprised more than a few market participants.  To be sure, the pace of selling doesn't seem to fit with the economic reality at first glance.  Moreover, the higher yields have gone, the more expectations have increased for a tech... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.54 -0.23 UMBS 5.5 101.13 -0.15 UMBS 6.0 102.43 -0.11 GNMA 5.0 99.86 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 101.12 -0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.05 -0.13 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:15PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.543 +0.056 5 YR Treasury 3.610 +0.048 7 YR Treasury 3.815 +0.047 10 YR Treasury 4.087 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.736 +0.045 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:15PM EST Other News Existing Home Sales Rise, But Inventories Hamper Results Fri, Feb 19, 2021 11:42AM Existing home sales started the 2021 with a small increase from the December sale levels, the second consecutive monthly gain. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said transactions that include pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, increased 0.6 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million ... (read more) Prevention Measures and Increased Borrower Equity Lower Foreclosure Risk Fri, Feb 19, 2021 11:38AM The Urban Institute (UI) says the surge in foreclosures predicted as the COVID-19 pandemic drove unemployment to the highest level since the Great Depression may not materialize, even when the current forbearances end. Two UI researchers, Michael Neal and Laurie Goodman, say that even vulnerable homeowners may be spared, and they think they have identified t... (read more) Refi Share of Closed Loans Rose 7 bp in January Fri, Feb 19, 2021 9:32AM Ice Mortgage Technology (formerly Ellie Mae) said that closed loans continued show declining note rates in January, dropping from an average of 2.93 percent in December to 2.88 percent. The decline occurred across all loan types. The 30-year rate on conventional loans dropped to 2.91 percent from 2.96 percent and the 30-year rate on FHA loans declined by 8 b... (read more) MLO and Ops Jobs; Fee Collection, HELOC, Renovation Products; Comp Survey; Bank M&A Trends Fri, Feb 19, 2021 9:15AM (To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) I received many nice comments about the section in yesterday’s commentary about losing people in our industry before their time. Unfortunately, there was one that I just found out about yesterday: Oklahoma’s Kent Carter recently passed away. We would steal each othe... (read more) Latest Video Why the spring housing market may see price drops Rising rates only has moderate cooling effect on housing, says Black Knight... Spending, stimulus fuel strong GDP forecasts in 2021 The Bond Report - 9am - February 22, 2021 Around the Web Reuters Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields CNBC House panel advances $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill as Democrats move toward passage this week CNBC More Americans are looking to move as remote work gains acceptance during Covid pandemic CNBC Market nervousness growing over Powell's testimony to Congress this week Reuters Explainer: U.S. Treasury's cash drawdown - and why markets care Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory Feb 22nd Update: At Record Lows Reuters Yellen says to judge Biden stimulus on speed of return to pre-pandemic unemployment Calculated Risk Blog Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Treasury yields climb amid economic recovery hopes Reuters U.S. House Democrats advance $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill CNBC Fed's Williams say high market prices justified by economic growth and low rates Reuters Fed sees 'considerable' risk of ongoing U.S. business failures Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Forecasts: Movin' on up

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