With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times.  With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor .  What happens after a break below 1.0% though?  The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today.  It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Such a move could be a blessing or a curse.  If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August, a move to .97/.98 suggests a stronger possibility of another bounce, or at least another slow grind higher like the trading seen in Q4. The Fed announcement comes out at 2pm and Powell's press conference begins at 2:30pm.  As far as the Fed's current stance is concerned, we're more likely to see/hear market movers in the press conference, if at all.  Markets want reassurance (again!) that the Fed isn't even talking about tapering its asset purchases yet.

January 27, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jan 27, 2021 Mortgage Rates Down Only Slightly Despite Bond Market Rally Mon, Jan 25, 2021 4:24PM What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but there are also bonds specific to the mortgage market. These are what groups of loans ultimately become in order to be traded on the open market (thus allowing lenders to make more loans with less risk and lower rates). As investors buy and sell bonds throughout the day, bond prices change. The higher the price, the lower the implied interest rate. Simply put, if bonds are rallying, rates should be falling shortly thereafter. The 10yr Treasury yield... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.40 0.00   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Friendly Bond Bounce Continues as 10s Target 1.0% Wed, Jan 27, 2021 9:42AM With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times.  With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.63 +0.06 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.40 0.00 GNMA 5.0 100.00 -0.08 GNMA 5.5 101.13 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 102.01 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/14 3:37AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.553 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.630 +0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.816 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.023 Pricing as of: 9/14 3:37AM EST Other News Loans Still Taking 2 Months to Close as Refi Demand Stays Strong Mon, Jan 25, 2021 11:44AM The interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages originated in December reached an all-time low in ICE Mortgage Technology's (formerly Ellie Mae's) records, an average of 2.93 percent and a 4-basis point decline from the November rate. The company, in its monthly Origination Insight Report , said the note rate for all three loan types it tracks, FHA, Conve... (read more) November Home Prices Climbed at Highest Rate in Six Years Tue, Jan 26, 2021 12:12PM The annual increases in U.S. home prices is nearing dizzying levels. The November data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) crossed into double digits for the second consecutive month while the months numbers from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index came close. The Case-Shiller index, which covers all nine U.S. census ... (read more) Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Levels Since 2006 Fri, Jan 22, 2021 1:09PM Existing home sales resumed an upward trajectory in December. After drifting lower by 2.5 percent in November, breaking a five-month streak of gains , the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales in the last month of the year rose 0.7 percent. Sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, were at a seasonally adjusted annua... (read more) Encompass, Training, Credit Risk Jobs; Pricing, Sales, Reno Products; Training on Securitization and Other Upcoming Events Wed, Jan 27, 2021 9:18AM Just a couple more weeks until my uncle sends me a text asking if I’ve seen these funny photos of Bernie Sanders , of which there are no shortage. There is, however, a shortage of houses out there for the 70+ million Millennials to buy, even if rates were 0 percent and DPA programs abounded (which they do) When someone mentions a “housing price b... (read more) Latest Video Fed Chair Powell on whether he's concerned about a housing bubble Fed Chair Jerome Powell on whether the central bank can avoid a taper tantr... Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged The Bond Report - 9am - January 27, 2021 Around the Web NPR Down But Not Out: Pandemic Likely Dealt Blow To Economy But There's Room For Hope CNBC Federal Reserve leaves interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, sees growth slowing CNBC Fed Chairman Powell will try to soothe markets, but that may not work news.google.com Fed set to release monetary policy decision CNBC Nearly one third of U.S. homes are at high risk of natural disaster, a new study says CNBC Treasury yields dip slightly ahead of speech from Fed Chair Powell Yahoo News US durable goods orders show modest 0.2% December gain Calculated Risk Blog Wednesday: FOMC Statement CNBC Fed will need to reassure the market it's not thinking about dialing back its support Calculated Risk Blog BLS: December Unemployment rates down in 19 States, Higher in 12 States Calculated Risk Blog Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November NAHB Eye on Housing COVID-19 Continues to Impact Home Purchasing Plans CNBC White House signals it could agree to more narrowly targeted stimulus checks

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