In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September.  10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they weren't able to hold all of those gains.  Drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities served as the key market mover (and a great reminder that oil prices definitely don't always correlate with bond yields). In the day ahead, we can ponder whether it was geopolitical unrest that truly sparked the correction or if it's something we would have seen yesterday simply because it was time to see it.  The big bad correction had just gotten big enough to suggest it was getting to be that time, and the 1.80-1.94 range coincides with rates being in limbo between the strong August range and everything that came before (with the exception of the 1.5 days where rates quickly moved through the "in limbo" zone below). Regardless of the justification for the corrective bounce, tomorrow's Fed events dominate the outlook.  Whether we were correcting or continuing to move up an over 1.94%, the market will likely take its next big momentum cue from the Fed.

September 17, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 17, 2019 Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains Mon, Sep 16, 2019 4:48PM Mortgage rates closed out their worst week since 2016 on Friday as the bond market underwent a classic correction after its best month since 2011. The bigger and more sustained a drop in rates, the bigger the potential correction. There were, however, some actual market fundamentals underpinning the rate spike. Some investors are worried that central banks (like the Fed) are starting to think about the current rate cut cycle as shallow and temporary. While that would bode well for the economy, it's not a pleasant thought for longer-term rates (which have already priced in at least 2 more Fed r... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Correction to The Correction. Does it Matter? Tue, Sep 17, 2019 9:27AM In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September.  10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they weren't able to hold all of those gains.  Drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities served as the key market mov... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:14PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:14PM EST Other News MBA Says New Home Sales Increased for August Tue, Sep 17, 2019 11:20AM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is anticipating an increase in new home sales in August. The organization's Builder Application Survey found the volume of applications to finance the purchase of newly construction homes was 33 percent higher than in August 2018 although there was a downtick of 0.2 percent month-over-month. The numbers do not include a... (read more) Builder Confidence Rises Despite Manufacturing Slowdown, China Fears Tue, Sep 17, 2019 10:41AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 1 point in September. Along with an upward revision to the August number, that carried the HMI to its highest level of the year . The September reading was 68 and the August HMI was revised from 66 to 67. The index is a measure of builders confidence in the mark... (read more) Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders Fri, Sep 13, 2019 10:08AM The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing industry. The Association says tariffs, which have impacted the price of appliances, certain countertops, some items made of lumber, steel and aluminum, and miscellaneous other items, have driven up the ... (read more) Digital, Sales, Broker Products; Mortgage Compliance, Risk, and Fraud Q&A Tue, Sep 17, 2019 8:53AM As yet another example of a mortgage conference eating into a weekend, leading attendees to travel on a Friday or Saturday, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Regulatory Compliance Conference starts this Sunday. But the scheduling doesn’t detract from the important message: “Now more than ever, the regulatory environment calls for the best ... 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