In A Word:

As we discussed, there is usually a rebound on the way in the midst of such a sound beating.  It looks like we have that rebound this morning.  We'll have to see if it can last through the day.

To Lock or Float?

We'll be floating until further notice today.  Lenders will be reluctant to give us back all the gains from this rebound (don't get excited, it's not a big one).  So if the cure can hold it's gains into the afternoon, the hedgers at the price desks will probably cough up another eighth.  Not much data today, but we do get the rare late morning report in the form of the Treasury Budget.  Float until your lock cutoff (making sure you check back here regularly).  At that point assess the viability of the deal as it sits in conjunction with any updates we may have posted.  If you don't find an update here, locking is safest going into the next two days.  However, if CPI is tame on friday, it could add momentum to the rebound as inflation is the major force causing this wild sell-off

The Numbers:


6.0% FNMA OTR is improved by 10/32nds

5.5 FNMA OTR improved by 15/32nds

The News:

  • MBA purchase applications
    • Index stands at 376.2
    • (who cares?)
    • (no one)
  • Oil Reserves Report at 1030AM
    • Always has the potential to move markets in this environment.


MBS likely have some more room to push higher if the Dow keeps dropping like it is (currently down 96 points), but at it's current level (12,193), it will probably be fairly resistant to a major sell-off.  There is a much wider gap between stocks and bonds compared to the last time the Dow neared 12k.  This is either the comfortable range due to a correction or an uncomfortable range that is poised for correction.  The latter would be proven out if we get data that allays inflation concerns.