From A technical perspective, we created a window on July 16th when we fell below 100-22.  We made it back above on 8/20, but the following day did not provide "confirmation" of the trend.  Then, the last 4 days of last week all held above that window and even created another "sub-window" at 100-25.

As the chart shows, we've already fallen out of last week's sub-window and are now right on the edge of that crucial territory at 100-22.  Again, equities will get their sugar high today.  The negative price action is affecting both bonds and MBS more or less equally.  The one comforting thing about a down day today is that, just as the 8/20 window failing to be confirmed by another day of gains following, if we were to break "down" through that same window today, it too, would require confirmation before indicating the threat of further price decreases.

Whatever the case, we're still waiting half an hour for today's ISM data, plus we have a reasonably busy week to follow.  If you have a very short time horizon AND ONLY if you have access to Friday's rates still, locking may pay off, but again, only if you have to order docs in the next three days.  Even then, we won't have a firm indication of short term market direction until tomorrow (unless data surprises us today, OR if we actually reverse course today), but nonetheless mid to long term technicals and fundamentals remain positive.


Here's your sign, er, uh, I mean graph: