We've had a strong bounce of the worst rate levels of the year owing to a worse than expected Jobless Claims Report and the Reassurance provided by the rapid enactment of the new Housing Bill.  Despite morning weakness, yesterday ended with some decent gains, and we have only added to them this morning.  (remember that "gains" refer to gains in the MBS market which translates to better rates.

The Numbers

The very best 30 year fixed rates are pushing down to the 6.25-6.375 range.


The News

  • Jobless Claims were significantly worse than expected at 406,000 Americans filing for unemployment benefits this week.
    • weak economic data is generally good for mortgage rates, and combined with the reassurance the markets received yesterday from news item #2, the mortgage market is getting a decent amount of "that lovin' feelin'"
  • Fannie/Freddie Bailout Bill Passed House
    • Along with several other stabilizing factors, the bill specified the manner in which the government will be involved in serving as a backstop for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who insure or hold over 5 trillion dollars of mortgage debt.  Concerns over these agencies have been a drag on the mortgage market recently.  A quick passing in the Senate and a quick signing into law by Dubya should only serve to add to the existing positive sentiments.

The Call

    Despite the uncertainty surrounding "calling a market bottom" on Monday, we were leaning towards floating.  This was and is still the way to go as it does indeed appear that we hit the market bottom and will slowly be improving now.  But as always, you'll need to stay tuned to intraday updates on the professional blog in order to see those changes coming before lenders have a chance to price them into the market.