After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business days that have followed, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved enough to impact the typical mortgage quote. Our index has drifted microscopically higher and lower, never moving more than 0.02% from one day to the next, and never more than 0.03% from the center of the range.
The last time we've seen things this narrow for this many days in a row was in November, 2022. Rates had just moved down abruptly from long-term highs and there was uncertainty as to whether additional improvement would be justified by data and events. That's arguably the case this time as well, although the present rally has been longer lasting and better supported by data.
In both cases, the sideways slide speaks to uncertainty. Bonds (which dictate rates) don't know the next move until they see the data in early January. Even then, the movement will only go so far without getting more justification from the data. Bottom line, we're in "wait and see" mode, but at least we're waiting and seeing at the lowest rates in more than 7 months.