Mortgage rates moved higher today at the fastest pace in several months today. The underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was merely hinting at a corrective bounce by the end of last week. After today's moves, bonds are shouting their corrective intentions from the rooftop. While it does happen several times a year, it's rare to see rates move higher as quickly as they did today.
If all of that sounds alarming, that's because it is! Days like today can indeed mark the shift into a higher gear for a run toward higher rates. That said, this is only the 4th day of higher rates since hitting 3-year lows at the beginning of last week. There are certainly past examples of days like today--that give the illusion of more pain to follow--that end up being false alarms. There's no way to know which version we're getting! All we can do is follow the current trend, which is currently unfriendly until further notice.
Loan Originator Perspective
It appears rates have hit their bottom, at least for now, as both MBS and treasuries retreated again today. The good news is that procrastinating clients will still get rates near their lowest levels in roughly 3 years. I'm locking new loans closing within 45 days. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.5-3.625%
- FHA/VA - 3.25%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125 - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections.
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.