Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's important because the Fed's treatment of rates and rate momentum itself is repeatedly characterized as "data dependent."
We have no reason to doubt the Fed or the market, and today's trading session sent the same message. Unfortunately, the tone of today's data was quite different than yesterday's with Jobless Claims coming in much lower than expected. Even in the overnight session European economic data was already pushing bond yields (which correlated with interest rates) higher.
By the time mortgage lenders published rates for the day, the average lender was noticeably higher than yesterday's latest levels, but not quite as high as Tuesday's levels.
All of the above may end up looking like much ado about nothing depending on the outcome of Friday's big jobs report. It is one of the economic reports with the most potential to cause volatility for interest rates... in either direction.