In A Word:

MBS prices are down fairly sharply this morning following stronger than expected pending home sales data.  With no other data scheduled for today, stocks and headlines will set the market tenor.  With the Dow up 67 points currently, it's not looking good.

To Lock or Float?

This depends largely on your time horizon.  Recently, we've had more down days than up, and our price curve is starting to trend down again.  Floating is becoming very risky and is not recommended, especially considering the Dow is packing it on (up to 117 pts) even as this is being typed.  Granted, there is always the possibility of a mid-day turn around that will lead to price improvements, but if you were forced to choose one or the other, locking is the safer choice, short term.

The Numbers:


6.0% FNMA OTR is down by 9/32nds

5.5 FNMA OTR down by 14/32nds

The News:

  • pending home sales
    • hugely unexpected 6.3% jump in june.
    • Stocks like the news, MBS, not so much
  • Lehman Bros
    • pre-reported a loss of 2.8 billion dollars
    • simultaneously announced it will raise 6 billion in capital