The "base case" of a narrower, more sideways range between CPI and NFP is increasingly being disproven by a more bullish reality. Especially after the past two days, it's beginning to look a lot like a downtrend.
Of course we'd like to see more than 2 days of movement to confirm a new theme. We should also continue to place most of our focus on next week's economic data because it won't care if the trend has been sideways or directional (rates will move in the direction the data suggests regardless).
But how weak would the data need to be in order to confirm a trend toward lower rates? Perhaps not excessively... There is a certain measure of electricity in the air as markets once again begin buying into a big picture rate reversal. The last two examples were false starts, but maybe the third time's the charm?
While the most recent example of a fledgling rally is currently the shortest, it is also the only one accompanied by a marked shift in tone from the Fed and--for now--in the economic data.