After two days of significant improvements, Mortgage Rates took a measured step back today.  Best-Execution rates rose about an eighth of a point, but in some cases, your rate may not have changed at all today-merely your closing cost quote.

(temporary caveat that we'll probably repeat a few more times): Please keep in mind that lenders simply cannot move mortgage rates lower at the same pace as a rapid rally in Benchmark Treasuries.  Although you might hear talking heads on TV or read articles saying that mortgage rates are tied to Treasuries, THEY ARE NOT, and you'll be perennially frustrated if you expect them to be.  We explained that in greater detail earlier in the month:(Why aren't rates getting lower as fast as Treasuries). 

Today's Rates:  The current market is in a state of flux at the moment and mortgage rates moving up and down around ALL TIME LOWS.  BestExecution 30yr Fixed rates were mostly near 3.875% today, with a higher than normal degree of variation around there.  FHA/VA deals are in a bit of a predicament that's keeping them blocked off below 3.75% (there's no secondary market for rates any lower than that right now!).  For similar reasons, 15 year fixed conventional loans may be stuck at 3.25%.  5 year ARMS remain near 3.125%, but with variations from lender to lender.

GUIDANCE:  Yesterday's guidance was really excellent.  As feared, we saw plenty of "pipeline control" price changes among lenders, and that was exacerbated today by weakness in the bond market.  Strategically (longer term, bigger picture), locking when the Best-Execution rate is 3.875% makes a ton of sense.  Even on a shorter term outlook, the broader shift that's taken place behind the scenes in the secondary mortgage market suggests a range of rates between 3.75 and 4.125.  So right now it's leaning slightly to the more aggressive side.  If there was any better time in history to lock a loan than today, it was yesterday.  We don't know what sort of opportunities will be available next week, and although we think rates will be relatively low for a while, we're not sure it's worth the risk to float for marginal gains when we're only an eighth or two away from some of the most aggressive offers yesterday (and consequently, of all-time).