More to come shortly, but wanted to get you the early data from this morning ASAP.


  1. Personal Income and Outlays Report (a measure of consumer participation)

Both readings were .1% higher than explanations, but the caveat is that outlays, the more important piece of data were the lowest in 15 months, making ’07 the weakest year since ’03.


  1. ECI (employment cost index)

Held dead even with expectations and previous numbers which is one signal that points to controlled inflation.  This is good for rates


  1. Jobless Claims

Much higher than expected at 375k vs. expected 318k.  Great news for bonds as it signals weakening consumer participation potential.



The combination of this data is good for mortgage rates, perhaps extremely good.  A slightly more detailed analysis to follow shortly as well as a report on bond prices, but certainly expect better rates today…