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Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of "the range." Now that mortgage rates and MBS spreads have largely settled relative to Treasuries, we might wonder if they'll also have a tough time moving lower. The big caveat here is that there's still a chance that the .58% bounces are purely coincidental. If it continues to happen, we'll be talking more and more about it.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Jobless Claims 1.416m vs 1.300m f'cast , 1.307m prev
Market Movement Recap
08:14 AM Bonds modestly stronger overnight despite slightly higher stock prices. 0.58% resistance remains intact underfoot. 2.0 UMBS starting out almost an eighth of a point higher.
09:13 AM Bonds briefly improved after Mnuchin comments (lower unemployment benefits and no payroll tax cut in the next round of stimulus), but are struggling to stay below .58%. 2.0 UMBS are an eighth of a point higher.
12:06 PM MBS now down an eighth from the highs. 10yr yields unable to break below .58%. Low volatility overall.
03:55 PM MBS continue to underperform despite Treasuries returning toward their better levels of the day. 10yr yields are down nearly 2bps at .582. 2.0 UMBS are down at the lows of the day, - 2 ticks (-0.06) vs yesterday and trading at 102-29 (102.91).
MBS Commentary
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Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of "the range." Now that mortgage rates and MBS spread... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Urban Institute (UI) is speculating that a new penalty imposed on loan originators and arising out of the COVID-19 forbearance plans is beginning to significantly tighten the credit box. A paper written by analysts Laurie Goodman and Michael Neal... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Loan officers are known for “holding the hand” of their borrowers. Now Google would like to hold the other. With the help of the CFPB, and launched yesterday, searching “mortgage” in Google on one’s phone will lead to Go... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates have been holding a very narrow range since July 9th. They also hit new all-time lows on July 9th. A few of the days since then have been slightly better and--less frequently--slightly worse, but any one of them is noticeably better th... (read more)
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Housing News
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Existing home sales ended a three-month string of losses arising out of the COVID-19 pandemic with a flourish, soaring by 20.7 percent from May to June. Sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units in May to 4.72 million un... (read more)
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Housing News
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House prices fell in May, although they remain well ahead of prices a year earlier. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its House Price Index (HPI) dropped by 0.3 percent from its April levels. Prices were down or unchanged in eight of the... (read more)
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